CS2 · resolved market
Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40225849b4fde6367ceffd3d5873a452b57c2b696abb431f3dddfa4ac512d960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 35c | 2,457$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.97 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b3…a386backed No | 65c | 1,859$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.02 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Yes | 21c | 1,168$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.52 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed No | 64c | 1,000$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…19c3backed No | 44c | 618.83$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.65 | 120 | 41.7%50 W · 70 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…1015backed Yes | 57c | 437.24$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 418.68$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.57 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Yes | 43c | 368.74$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.62 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 45c | 352.47$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked No | 63c | 330.76$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fa…4461backed No | 59c | 252.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 47c | 207.75$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…cdb9backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d2…ef4dbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 34c | 195.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 56c | 193.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…3b45backed No | 51c | 191$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539a…4406backed No | 56c | 177.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.32 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 54c | 159.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 30c | 155.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 170 | 34.7%59 W · 111 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 56c | 131$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 62c | 126.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Yes | 56c | 120.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 371 | 57.7%214 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 118.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 28c | 112.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…dc52backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…1dfbbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 53.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked Yes | 41c | 42.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 41c | 41.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 291 | 27.5%80 W · 211 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed No | 47c | 36.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 44c | 35.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…7a11backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa261…da11backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…e190backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BIG qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?this page
- Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will Astralis qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will FUT qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will G2 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will GamerLegion qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will Legacy qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will MIBR qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
- Will Monte qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will Spirit qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?Yes won
- Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.