Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Andrew Wheeler for Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402bea3f1d51947a2c62cbc5ce466282a2ab316063d9093c6fc902b89bd980c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,678$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 750.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 48c | 590.06$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.74 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 447.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…440cbacked Yes | 61c | 384$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf084…949dbacked No | 39c | 384$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637e…3c94backed No | 40c | 316$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…6b35backed Yes | 60c | 316$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…d977backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b6…6591backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 60c | 298.09$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…39b9backed No | 38c | 183.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed No | 40c | 153.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 54c | 135$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 59c | 129.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 123$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 45c | 114.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 43c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed No | 53c | 103.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 45c | 84.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 55c | 82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 54c | 82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…64a2backed Yes | 61c | 81.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 42c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…6a27backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 42c | 49.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…22f7backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…08ccbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Andrew Wheeler for Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency?this page
- Will Trump nominate Aurelia Skipwith Giacometto for Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency?No won
- Will Trump nominate Mandy Gunasekara for Administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.