TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Buffalo Bills win the AFC East?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,415

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x31c5…ede4backed Yes73c7,146$5,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,222.6916545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Yes18c4,428$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.548729.9%26 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,976$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.445679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cfc…7f80backed No27c3,248$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.175628.6%16 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Yes75c1,261$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.054264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9af…497cbacked Yes20c1,252$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes56c1,000$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55916226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes71c1,000$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.31936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes71c938.33$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.231,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52f…e6b0backed Yes74c935.75$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x741b…0468backed No28c930.57$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.112313%3 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+156.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes63c800.05$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.0719638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No26c651.41$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.7341540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes25c585$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.218428.6%24 W · 60 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed No80c550.43$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.093138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes22c483.83$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6222434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes42c368.09$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.8928151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6627…2b6abacked Yes25c309$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No68c308.47$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.055930.5%18 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5d3…a77bbacked No73c302.17$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.891573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes62c300$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.488818.2%16 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No28c299.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.483447.1%16 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes38c260.61$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9320238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.32272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes13c249$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.373231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31f2…4921backed Yes17c239$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes14c223.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.956225.8%16 W · 46 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1977…32e8backed No32c200$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13619948.2%96 W · 103 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes56c196.39$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.265230.8%16 W · 36 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+85.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd696…0863backed Yes17c182$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x908d…1d99backed Yes26c140.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.834334.9%15 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f0…8a69backed Yes71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2896…b55fbacked Yes25c137$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e64…af6ebacked Yes74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes75c133.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005662.5%35 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb6…576cbacked Yes15c131$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a7…ad87backed Yes26c129$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb299…4a62backed Yes59c125$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4837556.3%211 W · 164 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a47…5533backed Yes74c123.46$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes72c121.38$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3713217.4%23 W · 109 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+104.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6995backed Yes25c114$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c8…24e8backed Yes15c108$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c8…9e6fbacked Yes25c107$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1400…d107backed No75c106$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+145.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47d4…d952backed Yes28c106$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd72e…0ae6backed Yes71c105.28$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6761…91ecbacked Yes26c105$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea24…6f90backed No75c102$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62ed…786fbacked No75c101$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…fdcabacked Yes60c100.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8952828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Yes62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6218336.1%66 W · 117 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.151266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14f0…aeedbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes69c99.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.15944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No75c98.77$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.664747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad79…1a49backed No75c96$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…45e9backed Yes25c96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd1…4569backed Yes28c96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc313…0aa9backed Yes26c94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e09…7707backed Yes25c91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa182…a99ebacked Yes26c91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes26c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…81e1backed Yes25c84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc0…9d08backed Yes15c81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee2…029cbacked Yes25c81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes23c79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.265024%12 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50ed…bdd0backed No74c79$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ab…6690backed Yes25c79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…7930backed Yes15c79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd309…339bbacked No75c78$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b9cbacked Yes25c78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9efd…1880backed Yes64c74.05$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.281553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2263…8a25backed Yes26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa823…851fbacked Yes37c67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b7…742dbacked Yes25c65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d8…1f87backed No75c65$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0216…056bbacked Yes26c64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6805…85efbacked Yes27c63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d90…eb32backed Yes25c63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4300…1cd0backed Yes24c62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed Yes73c61.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454052.5%21 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8345…1ffebacked Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524f…4a96backed No74c59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb9…1d40backed No74c58$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf7…455fbacked Yes17c58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…c4bbbacked Yes25c57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x595d…d8f4backed Yes25c54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4634…f466backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe70…9854backed Yes25c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf786…6fbebacked No75c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c74…02a2backed No76c48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4289…b244backed Yes25c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac7b…f334backed No76c47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1804…bd47backed Yes60c46.02$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5b3…44cabacked No75c46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6456…2ea7backed Yes27c46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b2…cc77backed No75c43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f6…fc8dbacked Yes25c42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x811c…c363backed No73c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.