TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Team Secret (BO3) - VCT Pacific Play-In

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ONSIDE GAMINGof ONSIDE GAMING, Team Secret
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,253

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,790 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x65c1…2988backed Team Secret41c38,320$15,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,591.6625554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b1…6dfcbacked ONSIDE GAMING59c27,500$16,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,225.21030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-56.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked ONSIDE GAMING57c14,000$8,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,955.1419046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ONSIDE GAMING59c7,098$4,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.7319860.6%120 W · 78 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed ONSIDE GAMING60c6,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4002356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed ONSIDE GAMING59c6,000$3,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.764158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Team Secret43c3,999$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.8328143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Team Secret43c3,947$1,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,686.921560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked ONSIDE GAMING59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23026738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed ONSIDE GAMING59c2,500$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.9916952.1%88 W · 81 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Secret43c2,239$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.6293148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Team Secret40c2,150$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9941734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Team Secret41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82028743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Secret42c1,919$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.1356551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Team Secret42c1,884$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.0118641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed Team Secret41c1,750$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71532245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Secret43c1,748$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.8515038%57 W · 93 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Secret41c1,726$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.661,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ONSIDE GAMING58c1,648$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.2839646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e38…fd47backed ONSIDE GAMING77c1,292$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.2450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a5…55d6backed ONSIDE GAMING57c1,290$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Team Secret43c1,270$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.53714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed ONSIDE GAMING57c1,263$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.085156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbe95…1a93backed ONSIDE GAMING58c1,241$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.311957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Team Secret39c1,200$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.998640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed ONSIDE GAMING65c1,107$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.0949255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d1d…c307backed Team Secret40c1,084$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.76812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Secret42c1,031$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.2816347.2%77 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Secret42c1,003$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.1312951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed ONSIDE GAMING58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4206541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Secret22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22039042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked ONSIDE GAMING58c999.98$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked ONSIDE GAMING57c999$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.5755152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Team Secret43c895.35$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38529733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Team Secret42c874.3$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.226447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x314e…af4ebacked ONSIDE GAMING78c855.64$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked ONSIDE GAMING58c846.19$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.2619751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Team Secret42c840.38$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.964845.8%22 W · 26 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53d3…cc48backed Team Secret42c840.38$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.962040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e03…040fbacked Team Secret42c840.38$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.962751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4923…6866backed Team Secret40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005263.5%33 W · 19 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Secret41c734.82$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6484838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed ONSIDE GAMING57c700$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30128541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e6d…6f31backed Team Secret41c614.9$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.266443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Team Secret41c567.59$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.7115843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed Team Secret42c528$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.845356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed ONSIDE GAMING59c528$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.4825556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked ONSIDE GAMING58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.246154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed Team Secret23c472.26$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2625245.2%114 W · 138 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed ONSIDE GAMING57c430$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.123463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Team Secret42c429.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.628252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1747…4afcbacked Team Secret43c421.71$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.1611044.5%49 W · 61 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked ONSIDE GAMING58c412.76$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3662856.4%354 W · 274 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Team Secret43c411.73$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0462156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Secret42c400.37$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.1660154.2%326 W · 275 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee46…faa0backed Team Secret41c395.47$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Secret40c382.82$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.91,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed Team Secret27c373.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004647.8%22 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Team Secret31c369.28$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.993056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed ONSIDE GAMING57c350.88$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.375759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Secret43c320.28$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.8140254.7%220 W · 182 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Team Secret43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1299845.9%45 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Team Secret43c300$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.58349.4%41 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked ONSIDE GAMING57c275$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.255054%27 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35d…102abacked ONSIDE GAMING61c266.21$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.88450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Team Secret42c250.3$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1363447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed ONSIDE GAMING57c247.17$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.331435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x11ca…2737backed ONSIDE GAMING58c241.38$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.382161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…1222backed ONSIDE GAMING57c240$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.23666.7%24 W · 12 L+7.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+44.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed Team Secret42c232.69$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.731442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda7…af42backed Team Secret43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004860.4%29 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Secret43c229.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.96553.8%35 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c2…d39ebacked Team Secret43c227.27$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked ONSIDE GAMING59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Team Secret42c200$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed ONSIDE GAMING57c199.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26c6…1e14backed ONSIDE GAMING60c180$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.521968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Team Secret42c177$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.342634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad08…c58bbacked Team Secret43c175$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked ONSIDE GAMING58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4113043.1%56 W · 74 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b47…25d3backed ONSIDE GAMING57c172.16$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.031546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Team Secret41c170.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707959.5%47 W · 32 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Team Secret59c167.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.118345.8%38 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d25…0f79backed ONSIDE GAMING59c161.02$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.021872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+55.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked ONSIDE GAMING61c159.82$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4622352.9%118 W · 105 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Team Secret42c159$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7813741.6%57 W · 80 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a9a…a9c7backed Team Secret48c157.54$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.181241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Team Secret48c151.81$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8734253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked ONSIDE GAMING62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.531643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Team Secret42c142.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609145.1%41 W · 50 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a74…de59backed ONSIDE GAMING56c142.74$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.811040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed ONSIDE GAMING58c142.35$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0812640.5%51 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked ONSIDE GAMING59c141.33$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7138548.6%187 W · 198 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed03…1caabacked Team Secret43c137$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.916448.4%31 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Team Secret42c136.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2218143.6%79 W · 102 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ONSIDE GAMING48c132.41$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.3317557.1%100 W · 75 L+15.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed ONSIDE GAMING56c131.3$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0415147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked Team Secret41c130.07$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3310555.2%58 W · 47 L+16.2wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+39.2%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x816b…9ec7backed ONSIDE GAMING77c129.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa5…05bbbacked ONSIDE GAMING77c127.4$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.42040%8 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.