TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Ann Li

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Emma Navarroof Emma Navarro, Ann Li
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$534,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$585,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $534,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x83d2…d196backed Emma Navarro44c89,890$39,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,362.0410650%53 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Ann Li56c80,009$44,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,804.81850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Ann Li54c77,351$41,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,764.2813843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ann Li4c67,171$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.448,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Ann Li13c21,249$2,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.484,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Emma Navarro49c20,174$9,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,200.471,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Ann Li20c18,102$3,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,593.586,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Ann Li58c17,247$10,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,081.276141%25 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Ann Li20c16,779$3,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,297.194,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Emma Navarro45c12,444$5,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,833.8893740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Emma Navarro40c11,998$4,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,198.791,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a4…5780backed Ann Li58c8,702$5,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,047.396043.3%26 W · 34 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Emma Navarro41c7,171$2,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,230.7278536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4064…5f1ebacked Ann Li43c5,292$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.828039.3%110 W · 170 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Ann Li1c4,817$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5685624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Ann Li1c4,403$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.031,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde19…3c92backed Ann Li39c3,065$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.587953.2%42 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Ann Li15c3,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45018047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Emma Navarro42c3,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,739.9868935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde76…7d17backed Ann Li11c2,691$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.0512452.4%65 W · 59 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Ann Li59c2,542$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked Ann Li56c2,500$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Ann Li2c2,247$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.111,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cef…fa91backed Emma Navarro41c2,194$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,291.7519339.4%76 W · 117 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d96…7c16backed Emma Navarro41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1808045%36 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Emma Navarro55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.187443.2%32 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6982…a165backed Emma Navarro74c1,718$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.162956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Emma Navarro58c1,700$986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71459348.9%290 W · 303 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ann Li22c1,632$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.7811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e02…b178backed Ann Li2c1,601$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.873349.6%32 W · 302 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Ann Li59c1,527$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Emma Navarro72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.8929443.5%128 W · 166 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Emma Navarro54c1,318$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.168,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Emma Navarro61c1,313$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.134,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Emma Navarro42c1,300$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7541464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Emma Navarro70c1,284$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.991755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde6e…0169backed Ann Li58c1,200$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6962729.6%8 W · 19 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-43.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Emma Navarro58c1,191$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.115,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Ann Li58c1,084$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.543,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Emma Navarro58c1,038$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.681,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Ann Li6c1,030$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8575312.2%92 W · 661 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Ann Li59c1,017$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60021537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c87…98b1backed Ann Li2c1,010$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.22262.2%5 W · 221 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7265…8712backed Ann Li56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56040%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Emma Navarro55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45030857.1%176 W · 132 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc153…6767backed Ann Li2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Ann Li56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5603935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1362…f403backed Ann Li56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Ann Li57c999.99$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57041060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Emma Navarro40c999.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9985634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Emma Navarro42c999.96$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.981,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb943…375bbacked Emma Navarro41c934.74$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.517649.4%87 W · 89 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Emma Navarro41c906.78$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53556827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Ann Li8c800.03$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Emma Navarro42c714.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.282,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ann Li14c690.65$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.292,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf886…d825backed Ann Li4c686.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.165448.1%26 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Ann Li20c686.46$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.464,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Emma Navarro74c675.5$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.631,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18bc…b423backed Emma Navarro76c656.29$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.743100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Ann Li58c641.95$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.3314849.3%73 W · 75 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Emma Navarro78c583.82$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.512,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Ann Li43c560$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Emma Navarro41c500$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29534242.4%145 W · 197 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3b…fc0bbacked Ann Li57c489.71$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.13825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Emma Navarro42c449.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.491,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Emma Navarro42c449.58$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.769,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Ann Li58c431.03$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25068350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Emma Navarro42c413.21$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.662,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Ann Li54c412.89$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.597261.1%44 W · 28 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb63a…37b0backed Emma Navarro74c380.71$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.571030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Emma Navarro41c346$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.747,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12a2…c60dbacked Emma Navarro42c344.55$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.841560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Emma Navarro41c343.15$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.951,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe44c…32a5backed Ann Li9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302228.6%19 W · 203 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Ann Li38c330.62$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1435932.6%117 W · 242 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Ann Li31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10039238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Ann Li59c303.73$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.242839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Emma Navarro76c273$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.521,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Ann Li57c258.65$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3342141.8%176 W · 245 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Emma Navarro41c256.9$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5739149.1%192 W · 199 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d1…c18fbacked Emma Navarro60c254.43$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3222562.7%141 W · 84 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Emma Navarro43c250$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.589850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Emma Navarro42c249.27$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.761,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f5…e4c2backed Emma Navarro42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.19244.6%41 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ec…3630backed Ann Li27c232.89$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2913232.6%43 W · 89 L-14.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Emma Navarro44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2728541.1%117 W · 168 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Emma Navarro72c225.96$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2399244.7%443 W · 549 L-29.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Emma Navarro44c225.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.475,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e0…a433backed Emma Navarro74c216.78$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9221845.9%100 W · 118 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Ann Li21c204.75$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4367838.3%260 W · 418 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Emma Navarro44c202.46$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.763,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Ann Li28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5627132.1%87 W · 184 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cf5…52adbacked Emma Navarro43c196.26$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.871457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Ann Li8c196.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.112,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Ann Li20c195.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6521838.1%83 W · 135 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Emma Navarro41c195.12$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1225250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dab…e5c0backed Ann Li6c192.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9216028.8%46 W · 114 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Ann Li45c186.42$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.894,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed Emma Navarro71c180.9$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.12871.4%20 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.