Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42d2bba63146fffe042583751420dc2316c16de6d83bb4ca7ed269b1b6910a26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7df…7f82backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 230 | 57.8%133 W · 97 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 64c | 172.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.95 | 377 | 54.1%204 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 61c | 125.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435f…2de6backed Over | 47c | 124.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 59c | 124.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…b713backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…c6e6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 47c | 74.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 751 | 42.1%316 W · 435 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 59c | 52.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Under | 60c | 42.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 134 | 73.9%99 W · 35 L | +13.8wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 617 | 46.5%287 W · 330 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…11fcbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Under | 61c | 37.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…095cbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…83eebacked Under | 57c | 26.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -10.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?LYON won
- First Blood in Game 2?LYON won
- First Blood in Game 3?Team Secret Whales won
- Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Game 3: Odd/Even Total Kills?Even won
- Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+1.5)LYON won
- Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Secret Whales (+2.5)LYON won
- Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs LYON (+1.5)LYON won
- Game Handicap: TSW (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5)LYON won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Under won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 1 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 2 WinnerLYON won
- LoL: LYON vs Team Secret Whales - Game 3 WinnerLYON won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.