TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Cardinals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cardinalsof Nationals, Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,329
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,617

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,329 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdefe…5432backed Cardinals57c22,555$12,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,698.4613065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x65e4…a3bdbacked Nationals43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30010844.4%48 W · 60 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Nationals43c6,664$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,865.4650852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Cardinals57c4,386$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.9628646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals43c3,496$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.471,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Nationals43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29031346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked Nationals43c2,800$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20449250.4%248 W · 244 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Cardinals57c2,345$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,008.3527953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc70e…cc0dbacked Nationals44c2,300$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…bbcbbacked Cardinals56c2,250$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Nationals1c2,038$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.738762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals16c1,879$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals43c1,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.81,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals26c1,859$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.459,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc4…ff28backed Cardinals56c1,850$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd022…eefdbacked Nationals44c1,800$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Cardinals57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3929240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nationals42c1,055$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.9571751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b8…9272backed Nationals8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802634.6%9 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43037446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Nationals44c925.81$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.367554.7%41 W · 34 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Nationals17c918.01$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0722312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Nationals44c900$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3961,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1421…644bbacked Nationals23c823.62$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.241040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Cardinals57c800$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34415543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Cardinals56c699.33$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.711,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca4…fde7backed Cardinals58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.666450%32 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals32c637.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.421,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf7…3032backed Nationals43c581.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Nationals44c499.59$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8243247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb653…85a4backed Nationals43c496.51$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.514148.2%68 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40b3…6159backed Cardinals58c438.21$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.214374.4%32 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Cardinals58c404.12$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.6634164.2%219 W · 122 L+22.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Cardinals57c390.78$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.4132754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Nationals44c360$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.423545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Cardinals56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8657545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Nationals43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Cardinals72c231.09$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6480680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Cardinals69c231$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.176,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Nationals44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nationals45c223.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Cardinals57c222.81$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8199951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals43c220.93$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Nationals27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5450447.2%238 W · 266 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Nationals43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5240548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Nationals43c179.37$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1338949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1946…8a1fbacked Cardinals57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442661.5%16 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Cardinals57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4453448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Cardinals57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4463052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Cardinals57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.441,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Cardinals57c174.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4331356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals43c171.54$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.621,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals44c170.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals56c169.44$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.772,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals24c168.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4031244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Cardinals58c167.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5616132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Cardinals57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.52,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ea…e15cbacked Nationals43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022351.6%115 W · 108 L+16.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Cardinals56c130$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.249450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Cardinals56c121$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2485047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc615…9f26backed Nationals19c115.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227025.7%18 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nationals44c113$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.721,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce19…08a6backed Nationals44c108.23$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc682…7c9ebacked Nationals44c103.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a6…f48bbacked Nationals45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459445.7%43 W · 51 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…79a4backed Nationals19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1915644.9%70 W · 86 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Nationals44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4492754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…a6dbbacked Cardinals57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435642.9%24 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Nationals44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-39.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd97e…a81ebacked Nationals44c99.07$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Nationals44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4054455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Cardinals67c89.55$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5513852.2%72 W · 66 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Cardinals78c88.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.811,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals44c80.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.531,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Cardinals57c80.23$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Nationals44c80$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.21,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Nationals17c79.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6521246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Nationals45c77.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c6…51b1backed Cardinals57c74.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf489…d482backed Cardinals57c71.44$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb34e…c317backed Cardinals57c70.37$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Cardinals55c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.548254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca7…ed82backed Nationals44c62.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7125952.5%136 W · 123 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc89f…5ea7backed Cardinals57c59.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+130.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3ab…ec05backed Cardinals57c55.54$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4957…ef96backed Cardinals57c52.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.633850%19 W · 19 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Nationals23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d89…40a4backed Nationals43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.518052.8%95 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Cardinals77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.568769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fd3…06a8backed Cardinals57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.54143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x728c…4e58backed Nationals43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+67.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…7deebacked Cardinals58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9961…8652backed Cardinals69c47.83$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.835172.5%37 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf62…227dbacked Nationals44c40.25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7118850%94 W · 94 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe259…b890backed Cardinals60c39.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7616162.1%100 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb6…773dbacked Nationals44c38.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.