TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc89f…5ea7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
71
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst Champions League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2025, EDT3850%19 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.42
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+32.5%+$42.99
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$23.36
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+31.6%+$11.26
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$139.83
Nets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+58.7%+$68.49
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$38.1
Rockets vs. Pacersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$16.53
Kings vs. Mavericksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+78.6%+$94.98
Hawks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$29.72
Wizards vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+31.6%+$38.45
Nuggets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+66.7%+$96.03
Warriors vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+284.6%+$130.07
Wizards vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$138.03
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$128.62
Knicks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$80.42
Celtics vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+163.2%+$68.46
Nets vs. Wizardsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$212.98
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$58.08
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+127.3%+$64.63
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+92.3%+$186.05
Clippers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST+69.5%+$30.39
Suns vs. Bullsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+53.8%+$45.25
Warriors vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$132.43
Heat vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$23.95
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST1844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$58
Flames vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST-100%-$131.55
Flames vs. Panthersbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$51.89
Oilers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+69.5%+$61.94
Islanders vs. Bruinsbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+90.5%+$112.56
Sabres vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST+49.3%+$41.78
Ducks vs. Sabresbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$18.43
Flames vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$103.32
Rangers vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+112.8%+$67.75
Sweden vs. USAbacked USA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$73.13
Stars vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+100%+$65.52
Golden Knights vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$59.3
Panthers vs. Capitalsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$58.31
Red Wings vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$61.98
Predators vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+104.1%+$55.82
Wild vs. Canadiensbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+127.3%+$53.08
Ducks vs. Krakenbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+117.4%+$63.87
Kings vs. Red Wingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$62.2
All 18 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$31.7
Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST+88.7%+$90.27
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2025, EST+108.3%+$80.04
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+37%+$132.85
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+104.1%+$62.12
Bills vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+88.7%+$60
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 14, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+130.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Phillies vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$63.77
Nationals vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$25.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$27.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$36.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$11.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.