NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hornets (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45d4713272bb7f5429c67a732c2121c8ddea70f76b9f26e38d4b4ca0e2a00f48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Hornets, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,160 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Kings | 51c | 17,531$8,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,590.33 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 49c | 11,840$5,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,797.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hornets | 49c | 10,971$5,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,375.76 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aec…b4cebacked Kings | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.92 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Kings | 51c | 6,369$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,151.64 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 42c | 4,678$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Hornets | 50c | 3,003$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 209 | 45.5%95 W · 114 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets | 51c | 2,045$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.27 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Hornets | 51c | 1,963$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.85 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Kings | 50c | 1,666$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.55 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kings | 73c | 1,122$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.86 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 51c | 1,059$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.84 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 49c | 1,045$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.23 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Kings | 49c | 1,010$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.26 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Hornets | 49c | 1,000$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Kings | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Hornets | 51c | 700$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.3 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Hornets | 49c | 613.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7193…ae51backed Kings | 66c | 508.93$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…4eb0backed Hornets | 49c | 409$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Kings | 50c | 400.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.24 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kings | 59c | 337.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.93 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Hornets | 49c | 306.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…2c44backed Hornets | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Hornets | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Hornets | 49c | 216$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Hornets | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Hornets | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 382 | 42.9%164 W · 218 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…44c1backed Hornets | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Hornets | 49c | 140.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 48c | 133.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Kings | 52c | 130$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Hornets | 44c | 117.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Hornets | 49c | 115.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Hornets | 50c | 104.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 92 | 42.4%39 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Hornets | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Kings | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Hornets | 38c | 97.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Hornets | 50c | 93.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Kings | 55c | 81.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Kings | 49c | 79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Hornets | 49c | 66.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…328ebacked Hornets | 49c | 58.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Hornets | 49c | 57.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Hornets | 34c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Hornets | 50c | 41.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Hornets | 34c | 36.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Hornets | 49c | 20.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bc…a4c6backed Kings | 75c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hornets (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-6.5)Kings won
- DeMar DeRozan: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Hornets vs. KingsHornets won
- Hornets vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineKings won
- Hornets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Kings: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Kings: O/U 223.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Kings: O/U 224.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Kings: O/U 225.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Kings: O/U 227.5Under won
- Kon Knueppel: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Kon Knueppel: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Nique Clifford: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Ryan Kalkbrenner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Hornets (-13.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.