TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Ryan Kalkbrenner: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,930 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Yes1c10,150$102 inLost-$101.537755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed Yes1c6,201$84 inLost-$84.0117554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Yes33c3,359$1,092 inLost-$1,092.131,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56be…57eebacked Yes51c2,941$1,500 inLost-$1,50021143.1%91 W · 120 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66f0…923bbacked Yes5c2,800$131 inLost-$1311020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No46c1,500$695 inWon+$8051,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes47c1,457$689 inLost-$689.3295651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No53c1,364$722 inWon+$642.171,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed No45c353.84$160 inWon+$193.8452146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No51c338.15$173 inWon+$165.044,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No54c333$180 inWon+$153.189348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked No46c217.39$100 inWon+$117.3943447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No53c188.43$101 inWon+$87.9192058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No51c174.23$89 inWon+$85.171,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed Yes48c136.41$65 inLost-$65.489242.4%39 W · 53 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes54c93.17$50 inLost-$50.3197049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked No41c68.22$28 inWon+$40.2593145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed No57c61.76$35 inWon+$26.3648751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No56c40$22 inWon+$17.690357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca14…48d0backed Yes42c36.14$15 inLost-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No53c32.23$17 inWon+$15.1450648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…77e6backed Yes46c24.39$11 inLost-$11.2218356.3%103 W · 80 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd186…5a61backed No57c24$14 inWon+$10.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe14b…c353backed Yes45c22.79$10 inLost-$10.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No53c21.27$11 inWon+$9.9883158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.