Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46df369db4de818098d9cc36bda84afbde0d1462f754f2b8a12b2dce7f1335ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 2,929$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.47 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 1,634$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 773.6$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.58 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 34c | 703$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 656.35$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 536$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 420$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.8 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 407.48$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 292.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 246$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 43c | 204.74$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.41 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 203$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 200.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…2116backed Yes | 33c | 179.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 167.9$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 30c | 166.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.28 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 164.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 154.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 53c | 150.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.46 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 147$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 142.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 16c | 138.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 128.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 53c | 116.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.65 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 115.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 104.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 103.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 45c | 101.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 89.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 79.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 66.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…8208backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 79c | 59.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 58.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 34c | 57.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6d…fe12backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…b0aebacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 99 | 9.1%9 W · 90 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 57c | 49.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 55c | 47.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 35.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 34.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed No | 68c | 34.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…6c89backed No | 55c | 33.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 39c | 31.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 67c | 29.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 55c | 29.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9526…0093backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…0e64backed Yes | 45c | 26.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 26.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed Yes | 78c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1072…b115backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 65c | 21.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…5a56backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 69c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 80c | 18.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 77c | 16.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 80c | 15.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.