Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4849c50aadf605231d2a2d129f9fc2a92872a88937d7dfff355619a71fde386c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked No | 0c | 3,332$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 799.45$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.58 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 522.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 63c | 498.46$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.19 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 473.43$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 26c | 439.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.22 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 334.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 276$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 254.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 249.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.16 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 230$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 34c | 229.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.7 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 30c | 208.06$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 201.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 187.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 179.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 178.42$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 175.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 153.3$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 149.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 134$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed No | 43c | 126.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 35c | 119.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 119$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 111.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 106.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 101.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 67c | 90.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 87.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 71.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 62.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 35c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 30c | 57.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 57.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 50.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb5…0f28backed Yes | 73c | 49.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 74c | 47.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 47.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 60c | 42.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 32c | 39.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 35.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 35.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…09febacked No | 62c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 28.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 24.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 63c | 16.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.