Stocks · resolved market
NVIDIA largest company before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cbb42db7f696576c7e9f44d3d8a97956e82ff61f755dd53e5b737338749d841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 5,076$4,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 79c | 3,756$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 26c | 1,632$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 23c | 1,567$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…38d9backed No | 20c | 1,177$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa734…84edbacked No | 48c | 1,034$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c03…8b7bbacked No | 27c | 956.81$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…d4e8backed No | 25c | 795.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…3585backed No | 5c | 678.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 46c | 580$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66cd…7b7ebacked No | 28c | 557.28$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 16c | 544.93$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…ccb1backed No | 21c | 470.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…336cbacked Yes | 58c | 446$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 44c | 443.04$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 74c | 436.6$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 77c | 377.5$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 41c | 341.15$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe92…d51abacked No | 21c | 327.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 74c | 317.38$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…910fbacked No | 25c | 306.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65f…cad9backed Yes | 77c | 254.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 27c | 226.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -70%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 61c | 225.76$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 56c | 222$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 34c | 212.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 19c | 209.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 72c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 64c | 153.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe862…7d6bbacked No | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 25c | 112$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 61c | 111$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked No | 67c | 107.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 33c | 105$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 63c | 103.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +97%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed No | 19c | 100.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…ade8backed No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…ea59backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1979…df8cbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb76…fd0bbacked No | 48c | 22.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f4…7120backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd5…4689backed Yes | 56c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.