Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d2482587f2b332ef2c8bdf8ff15045f155df11ec4c670942d4b2c315caecf43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 8c | 30,607$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,815$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.01 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 72c | 9,524$6,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,886.19 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 9,238$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.48 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 5c | 8,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,600 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,520$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.72 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 39c | 2,523$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.04 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes | 34c | 2,000$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,843$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 8c | 1,537$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 1c | 1,141$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 47c | 1,003$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.79 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 69c | 810$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.3 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 48c | 807.58$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.3 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed No | 63c | 784.13$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.38 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 50c | 741.72$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.02 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 10c | 709.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…b3c9backed Yes | 6c | 680.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 610.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 26c | 598.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 30c | 580$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.46 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…9a5ebacked No | 77c | 530.64$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a7c4backed No | 76c | 510$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…cecfbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 19c | 436$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 17c | 290.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5af5…29c2backed No | 80c | 251.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…dfbbbacked Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 67c | 250$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed No | 55c | 231$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 18c | 228.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Yes | 19c | 198.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes | 5c | 187.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked No | 77c | 129.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…f5adbacked No | 79c | 126.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…eacfbacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…bb53backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 70c | 92.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 58c | 90.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 29c | 84.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…5a95backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941c…d5d6backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…afebbacked No | 55c | 58.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1837…cf3abacked Yes | 29c | 58.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c7…afcbbacked No | 73c | 56.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 50c | 51.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…ec33backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 51c | 43.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed No | 66c | 37.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked No | 79c | 26.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb558…6d77backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ba…dc95backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe1…991abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d1…f6c4backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.