TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jazz vs. Wizards: O/U 241.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$33,376

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,376 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Over48c5,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Under53c4,717$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.982744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under56c4,174$2,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.641,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over43c3,986$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.174,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c3,963$1,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,890.989,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over47c3,194$1,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.822,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under54c3,087$1,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.441,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Under51c2,745$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.116640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under52c1,470$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.396,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over11c470.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.767921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over48c414.56$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.993,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d5…1232backed Under52c384.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.621850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over45c202.81$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.7591846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4008…2942backed Under53c182.08$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5818254.4%99 W · 83 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Under57c113.78$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7534248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over50c106.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.31,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Under56c106.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5912747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over47c73.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.663,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over41c68.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.111,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over47c47.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.482,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d51…7317backed Over48c41.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under52c41.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.723,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under51c37.24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.064,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7265872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x350e…7528backed Under57c34.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.638636%31 W · 55 L-11.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-26.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Over48c32.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5552552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1adb…f12abacked Under51c32.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.725345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b3…091cbacked Over49c32.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.728251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over49c27.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4564844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4eb…05b5backed Under51c20.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.995054%27 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87b0…8af8backed Over50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.