NBA · resolved market

Spread: Wizards (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366bb2c4872724c8265e12671c03af28457b7aef74d45f1b04161c1a5b7ad44d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Wizards, Jazz
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,197

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,197 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards	55c	11,018$6,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,026.47	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Jazz	44c	9,954$4,380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,574.48	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Jazz	63c	4,756$2,996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,759.73	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Wizards	37c	4,756$1,760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,759.73	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards	56c	4,641$2,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,579.8	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Wizards	52c	4,000$2,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,092.68	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Jazz	49c	2,683$1,326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,356.51	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards	55c	2,590$1,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,432.69	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz	45c	2,214$990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,224.48	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Jazz	49c	1,960$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$999.6	184	48.9%90 W · 94 L	-13.3wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdd29…a74abacked Jazz	45c	1,770$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$973.63	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Jazz	43c	1,160$503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$656.86	221	43%95 W · 126 L	-12.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Wizards	56c	1,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	-6.4wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f2e…5b64backed Jazz	45c	640.2$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350.01	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Jazz	45c	622.22$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.22	288	38.2%110 W · 178 L	-17.6wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x72d3…cbf2backed Wizards	55c	600$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards	56c	555$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.8	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Jazz	42c	547.62$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.62	874	53.3%466 W · 408 L	+19.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Jazz	44c	320$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.2	456	46.7%213 W · 243 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9325…adafbacked Wizards	53c	283.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	117	54.7%64 W · 53 L	+6.7wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Jazz	44c	270.35$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.29	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8b2d…a88dbacked Wizards	51c	264$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.64	64	39.1%25 W · 39 L	-7.7wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards	56c	233$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.57	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Wizards	56c	232.75$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.6	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	47c	223.47$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.44	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3502…7057backed Wizards	57c	210.53$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	182	56.6%103 W · 79 L	+7.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xece2…f453backed Jazz	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Jazz	47c	175.97$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.26	451	51.4%232 W · 219 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Jazz	49c	163.27$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.27	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Jazz	44c	160$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.6	565	47.8%270 W · 295 L	+9.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Jazz	48c	139.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.39	208	47.1%98 W · 110 L	-9.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Wizards	50c	139$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.31	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Jazz	45c	135$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.25	239	46.4%111 W · 128 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Wizards	49c	122.12$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.58	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe350…61f0backed Wizards	47c	122$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.34	46	50%23 W · 23 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked Wizards	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	405	41%166 W · 239 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa61…7f3bbacked Wizards	57c	100$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	92	55.4%51 W · 41 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b4…19acbacked Wizards	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Wizards	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	633	53.1%336 W · 297 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Jazz	45c	97.33$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.53	576	50%288 W · 288 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4147…902abacked Wizards	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	173	42.8%74 W · 99 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Jazz	47c	89.55$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.46	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c96…340fbacked Wizards	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Jazz	44c	80$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	340	47.1%160 W · 180 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Jazz	44c	80$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	572	50%286 W · 286 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77d8…849abacked Wizards	55c	80$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781d…201bbacked Jazz	49c	76.88$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.21	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	+5.5wins	+0.16per pick	49cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Jazz	46c	76.08$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.08	931	45.8%426 W · 505 L	-25.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Wizards	53c	75$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.05	243	34.2%83 W · 160 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcc…031ebacked Jazz	46c	74.47$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.21	233	49.4%115 W · 118 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Jazz	40c	73.28$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.97	354	44.6%158 W · 196 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdfd…2f8ebacked Wizards	56c	64.95$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.37	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Jazz	47c	63.83$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.83	332	49.7%165 W · 167 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Jazz	49c	56.63$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.97	119	42.9%51 W · 68 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8fa…d338backed Jazz	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards	51c	52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Wizards	56c	51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Jazz	44c	49.77$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.87	180	43.3%78 W · 102 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d4b…284abacked Jazz	45c	47.71$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.24	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5828…9599backed Jazz	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Jazz	46c	41.3$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.3	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…196ebacked Jazz	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	165	43.6%72 W · 93 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wizards	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Jazz	55c	32.09$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.37	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed Jazz	48c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.12	327	47.4%155 W · 172 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Jazz	48c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.12	620	49%304 W · 316 L	+4.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Jazz	48c	31$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.12	329	47.4%156 W · 173 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Jazz	53c	30.19$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.19	242	50.8%123 W · 119 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf219…76bbbacked Jazz	49c	28.76$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.67	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Wizards	47c	27.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c08…af98backed Wizards	56c	26.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	326	54.3%177 W · 149 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Jazz	45c	26.29$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.46	273	50.2%137 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Wizards	49c	24.59$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.03	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0f…48fdbacked Jazz	46c	22$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.88	233	50.6%118 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Wizards (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event