Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e7125ab7700c4c988cd06a3ce39ed8532722ee49c547d939c754491618e3a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,068$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 29c | 794.01$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 621.42$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 366.24$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.03 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 52c | 321.4$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.93 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 45c | 301.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.53 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 300$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…d98cbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 238.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.41 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 237.95$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 199.37$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 199.02$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 194$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 168.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 48c | 153$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…8651backed Yes | 28c | 145.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 130.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1f…535ebacked Yes | 38c | 127.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 75c | 111.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Yes | 51c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed No | 76c | 98.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 36c | 76.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 25c | 59.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 58.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 53c | 56.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 53.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 52.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 52.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 57c | 50.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf67…f83dbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 69c | 46.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 39.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 36.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 29.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 51c | 25.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…02debacked No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 50c | 20.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 74c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.