TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$804,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$935,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $804,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 465 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Team Spirit43c53,000$22,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,421.4117948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit62c27,444$17,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,372.591,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed MOUZ60c25,840$15,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,631.7671454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked MOUZ18c25,093$4,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,626.232549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit77c19,606$15,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,453.628159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed MOUZ71c18,663$13,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,222.2534468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ43c16,212$7,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,024.5545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ46c15,857$7,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,273.9471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed MOUZ41c11,133$4,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,617.3938855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ52c10,004$5,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,171.571,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Team Spirit50c9,979$4,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,999.9121155.5%117 W · 94 L+17.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed MOUZ30c9,558$2,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,896.7547646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Spirit74c9,003$6,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.156955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked MOUZ26c7,124$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8701,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked MOUZ52c6,757$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5003652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ53c6,431$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.831,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked MOUZ33c6,380$2,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,105.4989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MOUZ57c6,267$3,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,590.1696557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc592…1ccebacked MOUZ43c5,753$2,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,477.749042.2%38 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked MOUZ45c5,676$2,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,539.021,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a46…8112backed MOUZ46c5,390$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ51c5,330$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.421,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked MOUZ20c5,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ25c4,960$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.071,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed MOUZ41c4,787$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95847046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked MOUZ46c4,749$2,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,188.0516746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Spirit57c4,617$2,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.7835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed MOUZ12c4,566$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.8328044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Team Spirit44c4,470$1,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,486.8615739.5%62 W · 95 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MOUZ49c4,399$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.4180256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Team Spirit64c4,350$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,577.5525752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ26c4,001$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02669644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Spirit48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ14c3,990$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.8262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Spirit52c3,618$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ47c3,500$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked MOUZ26c3,333$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.5850347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed MOUZ45c3,215$1,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.6914825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MOUZ47c3,104$1,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,456.5745750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Spirit62c3,086$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.3350850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked MOUZ45c3,013$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365.9692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked MOUZ36c3,000$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0706744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed MOUZ22c2,974$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.9430336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ22c2,738$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60122340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ21c2,737$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.6781029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed Team Spirit74c2,521$1,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.2210075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Spirit26c2,481$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.8599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Spirit67c2,462$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.1379859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f56…d7dbbacked Team Spirit49c2,372$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.288538.8%33 W · 52 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed MOUZ53c2,345$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.9391553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Team Spirit79c2,243$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.0524246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ51c2,081$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.321,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed MOUZ36c2,048$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.7933453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed Team Spirit74c2,032$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.435438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed MOUZ61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2208143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MOUZ1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Spirit51c1,924$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.8832756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe790…698cbacked MOUZ55c1,915$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.527652.6%40 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit75c1,905$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.2779959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Team Spirit46c1,898$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.995347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Spirit75c1,888$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.7533867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed Team Spirit56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.716653%35 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed MOUZ27c1,694$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.328347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Team Spirit43c1,646$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.8222031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed MOUZ3c1,600$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5763032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked MOUZ26c1,562$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.0631055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed MOUZ54c1,534$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.7529240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked MOUZ53c1,522$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.8825446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked MOUZ54c1,517$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.1921558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Team Spirit52c1,458$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.8316547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed MOUZ18c1,440$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.288539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed MOUZ39c1,409$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.1153764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed MOUZ33c1,400$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.9929546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…79b6backed MOUZ64c1,399$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed MOUZ55c1,398$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.9226247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ44c1,391$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.6628341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f6…2463backed MOUZ60c1,350$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8101127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Spirit56c1,350$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58951544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed Team Spirit67c1,345$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.782564%16 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed Team Spirit56c1,335$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.286839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked MOUZ5c1,333$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6716725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Team Spirit79c1,333$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9331248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit75c1,321$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.420159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Team Spirit77c1,300$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.6314557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ47c1,297$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.291,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1213…4ceebacked MOUZ1c1,273$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked MOUZ51c1,263$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.1961456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba4…9e2dbacked Team Spirit21c1,243$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.59540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+95.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4cd2…4cb9backed MOUZ2c1,200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2480%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked Team Spirit77c1,185$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1214452.1%75 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed Team Spirit60c1,167$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.679852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed MOUZ26c1,129$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4811154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Spirit42c1,121$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64547650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd99e…8102backed MOUZ3c1,115$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.485024%12 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a4f…9b0cbacked MOUZ63c1,098$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.988250%41 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Team Spirit69c1,027$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.1823561.7%145 W · 90 L+19.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed MOUZ28c1,017$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4719251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed MOUZ50c1,016$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.0818356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Spirit40c1,007$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.235737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.