Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f3776235cdeafd97c70b3533b01ef1c7665ff0455855a93157cdf03d35989f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 23c | 1,275$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.56 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 22c | 886.73$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.05 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 669.23$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 66c | 481$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.88 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 24c | 452.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.61 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 435.64$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 40c | 347.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 5c | 342.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 317.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 245.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 213.51$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 176.58$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 162.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 34c | 162.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.97 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 160.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 42c | 157.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 155.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 62c | 147.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 15c | 146.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 135.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 14c | 117.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 117.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 47c | 107.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 97.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 91.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 58c | 86.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 78.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 28c | 78.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 51c | 78.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 43c | 66.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 79c | 63.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 62.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 26c | 60.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 59c | 56.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 34c | 55.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 55.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 53.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 40c | 52.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 52.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 30c | 47.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 32c | 46.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 71c | 42.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 26c | 41.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 76c | 41.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 36.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 29c | 35.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 72c | 30.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 37c | 28.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77cd…9148backed Yes | 39c | 26.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 71c | 25.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 24.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 19.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 74c | 15.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 14.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 14.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 14.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.