TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Ostrava Open: Rebecca Sramkova vs Linda Fruhvirtova

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fruhvirtovaof Sramkova, Fruhvirtova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$100,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$119,618

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,431 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Sramkova30c13,369$4,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,004.818337.7%69 W · 114 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Fruhvirtova44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,599.9943051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Fruhvirtova40c9,828$3,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,881.8235247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Sramkova56c8,348$4,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,675.0976146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Sramkova58c5,560$3,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,224.7910443.3%45 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb229…7298backed Fruhvirtova43c5,000$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,849.962842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd52…df69backed Fruhvirtova42c3,589$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.5626545.3%120 W · 145 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Fruhvirtova68c3,527$2,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,131.672,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Sramkova57c3,222$1,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,836.757939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Fruhvirtova54c2,475$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.227,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Sramkova56c2,182$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,232.1523945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Sramkova23c1,593$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.588,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sramkova16c1,566$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.716,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Sramkova44c1,474$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.752,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd95c…f1d7backed Fruhvirtova43c1,439$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.921872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+56.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Sramkova59c1,124$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.7555646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Sramkova56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5601275%9 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Sramkova50c771$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.5769249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc44…e036backed Sramkova54c755.93$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.1511560%69 W · 46 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f95…6972backed Sramkova34c742.56$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.383228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Fruhvirtova65c730.97$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.4530645.1%138 W · 168 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Fruhvirtova46c678.37$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.8444448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Fruhvirtova45c672.35$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.0125433.5%85 W · 169 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec7a…a1f2backed Sramkova60c626.71$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6814766.7%98 W · 49 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c89…526abacked Sramkova30c606.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18524638.2%94 W · 152 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed Sramkova54c566.87$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1111045.5%50 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dea…3792backed Sramkova50c557.2$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1136968%251 W · 118 L-1.1wins0.00per pick68cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Fruhvirtova66c542.99$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.072,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55af…b749backed Sramkova56c540.16$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x79e9…80b1backed Sramkova19c519.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.633228.3%94 W · 238 L-12.0wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32e3…3075backed Sramkova57c500$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6740%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf74d…9930backed Sramkova59c421.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25026158.2%152 W · 109 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x458d…b7c8backed Fruhvirtova54c400$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.421861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc88d…1da9backed Sramkova55c399.98$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.997934.2%27 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Fruhvirtova42c391$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.7821338.5%82 W · 131 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Sramkova34c378.42$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.116,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0c…2265backed Fruhvirtova79c363.29$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2910456.7%59 W · 45 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ad…e93cbacked Sramkova59c353.25$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2825…c0e3backed Sramkova58c344.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-50.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cde…6040backed Fruhvirtova38c340.79$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7916665.7%109 W · 57 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7be1…200ebacked Sramkova63c319.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1225152.6%132 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Sramkova57c316$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1214940.9%61 W · 88 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Fruhvirtova43c301.06$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.66851.5%35 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Sramkova38c291.79$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.173,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Fruhvirtova49c283.28$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.82,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sramkova62c259.22$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.3811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a23…f4ffbacked Sramkova23c255.65$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.012142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Fruhvirtova37c250$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.52,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Fruhvirtova41c250$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.54,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Fruhvirtova42c242$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3695140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x002f…46dfbacked Fruhvirtova43c225.74$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab0…b46abacked Sramkova34c221.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4423735%83 W · 154 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Fruhvirtova46c219.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.041,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Fruhvirtova46c214.7$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9480938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Fruhvirtova57c202.76$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.952037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Sramkova60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12051539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Fruhvirtova45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11012740.2%51 W · 76 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Fruhvirtova73c184.21$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.211,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Fruhvirtova44c177$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1231753.6%170 W · 147 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8df8…59ddbacked Sramkova59c145$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5524438.9%95 W · 149 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Fruhvirtova42c142.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1619129.8%57 W · 134 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Fruhvirtova43c139.53$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5325352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Fruhvirtova45c133.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.3313652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Fruhvirtova60c130.67$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.149143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Fruhvirtova43c116.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6925237.3%94 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b2…fdcdbacked Sramkova21c112$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Sramkova57c105.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019452.1%101 W · 93 L-13.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Sramkova65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657644.7%34 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e14…8d33backed Fruhvirtova79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.11752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb05…0f4abacked Sramkova56c98.21$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551225%3 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a50…ea80backed Fruhvirtova46c95.24$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4318133.1%60 W · 121 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Fruhvirtova41c85$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.151,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Sramkova37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Sramkova58c67.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2827543.3%119 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Sramkova30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94ee…6c5fbacked Sramkova57c66.65$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Sramkova24c62.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1524826.2%65 W · 183 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2496…b93cbacked Fruhvirtova80c60.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.073100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+91.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d4…5607backed Fruhvirtova42c59.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.523151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Sramkova50c56.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4682560.5%499 W · 326 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b76…0fe3backed Sramkova57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Sramkova51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Fruhvirtova43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.51,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Fruhvirtova41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Sramkova22c49.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9917741.8%74 W · 103 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9004…1d2cbacked Fruhvirtova44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4521455.1%118 W · 96 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf5…972fbacked Sramkova46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x970e…6b60backed Fruhvirtova75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick68cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f41…5cb3backed Fruhvirtova43c38.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Sramkova56c37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.77,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Fruhvirtova43c36.81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8124931.3%78 W · 171 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Fruhvirtova44c36.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3643749%214 W · 223 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Sramkova56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb512…71c6backed Fruhvirtova42c35.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.431020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Fruhvirtova42c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.236940.6%28 W · 41 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1a…db57backed Sramkova37c33.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5229.1%2 W · 20 L-6.4wins-0.29per pick38cpaid-79.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed Sramkova46c32.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Fruhvirtova42c31.28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1416046.9%75 W · 85 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Sramkova41c29.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9827546.5%128 W · 147 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfacd…d470backed Sramkova55c27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8521072.4%152 W · 58 L+0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.