NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52480188548b9a0aa2112d02993bed6d50ffd8d41a57de79e88d54db90b9ccf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 52c | 20,178$10,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,685.3 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 8,351$4,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,008.48 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 3,991$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.23 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 3,981$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.77 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 3,686$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.54 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 50c | 2,412$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.2 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…0127backed Under | 48c | 1,286$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.28 | 221 | 43%95 W · 126 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed Under | 48c | 1,144$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 50c | 534$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 49c | 458.12$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.57 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 436$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.64 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 342$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 37c | 322.08$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Over | 63c | 305.83$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 51c | 240$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 52c | 204$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 49c | 159.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…f2e3backed Over | 52c | 135.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 118.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 51c | 112.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…f42dbacked Over | 51c | 101.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 41c | 82.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 59c | 79.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Under | 48c | 68.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +60%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed Under | 48c | 66.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 52c | 64.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 59.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 58.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…48d8backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 49c | 52.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…6324backed Under | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Over | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…0df7backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- Al Horford: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Al Horford: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Warriors vs. GrizzliesWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.