NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6692a5ddef0baebae705316a8ef9ad3bc6eb8df13b9618977bd6828b47f859fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e43…a3cdbacked Under | 52c | 21,141$11,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,051.03 | 435 | 42.8%186 W · 249 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 12,257$5,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,480.64 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 4,041$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.68 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 52c | 3,008$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.22 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 2,576$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.28 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 48c | 2,538$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.64 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…49cebacked Over | 46c | 2,130$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,150.43 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.71 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 46c | 1,205$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.6 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 56c | 1,107$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 989.83$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.61 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 576$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.28 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 538.48$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.92 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 533.92$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.96 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 382.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.98 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 330.4$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 198$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c79…1bd5backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 47c | 164.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Over | 46c | 163.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…f6bcbacked Under | 54c | 162$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 48c | 116.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 102.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9423…bba6backed Over | 48c | 74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 55c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 54c | 49.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbb…727fbacked Over | 44c | 37.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 53c | 33.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…83f4backed Over | 48c | 33.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 56c | 32.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…efa0backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -14.6wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Warriors won
- Al Horford: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Al Horford: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Moses Moody: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Scotty Pippen Jr.: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Warriors vs. GrizzliesWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.