Michael Olise: 3+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54ae3d51029c2858875759620c0b0244ca0bc0bab2fcc265bc7eefbbce5638b4

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,028 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca7c…e994backed No	37c	749.72$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468.61	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes	63c	479.99$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.39	272	54.4%148 W · 124 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes	64c	144.61$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.55	179	62.6%112 W · 67 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c86…6a80backed Yes	64c	121.69$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.84	148	39.9%59 W · 89 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	40c	106.6$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.89	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc12…f422backed Yes	57c	102$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf96b…9c4cbacked No	35c	90.26$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.67	205	53.7%110 W · 95 L	+21.6wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+25%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8266…c472backed Yes	61c	32.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes	60c	25.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.42	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	53	86.8%46 W · 7 L	+9.6wins	+0.18per pick	69cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes	64c	15.63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	377	47.7%180 W · 197 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Michael Olise: 3+ shotsthis page
Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsNo won
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goalsNo won
Julio César Enciso: 2+ goalsNo won
Julio César Enciso: 2+ shotsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 1+ assistsNo won
Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 2+ assistsNo won
Michael Olise: 2+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 2+ shotsNo won
Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assistsNo won
Miguel Almirón: 1+ goalsNo won
Miguel Almirón: 1+ shotsYes won
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shotsYes won
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shotsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Michael Olise: 3+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event