Fifa International · resolved market
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x535cc014d53797933043c82a92743178729e6dce86ea2ae0e5956200d6778718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18e6…d83dbacked Yes | 12c | 16,667$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -12.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…78c7backed Yes | 12c | 13,014$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 137 | 21.2%29 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 11c | 8,507$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.41 | 144 | 28.5%41 W · 103 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 3,347$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.18 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…2e34backed Yes | 11c | 1,364$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 274 | 33.9%93 W · 181 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…38c6backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a0…da23backed Yes | 12c | 1,083$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 97 | 13.4%13 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…6049backed Yes | 11c | 1,045$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 113 | 16.8%19 W · 94 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 352 | 29.3%103 W · 249 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…f666backed Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…fe53backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…6ab0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 9c | 485.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 319 | 20.1%64 W · 255 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb115…4e6fbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb92d…5839backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d13…e9dcbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…f020backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…f305backed Yes | 12c | 393.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 188 | 27.7%52 W · 136 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…f4eebacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe369…0515backed Yes | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…f1dbbacked Yes | 11c | 303.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 438 | 19.2%84 W · 354 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…b000backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Yes | 11c | 250$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9041…ddbabacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…d7b7backed Yes | 11c | 236.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 204 | 27.5%56 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…d3dbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 389 | 24.4%95 W · 294 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 667 | 45%300 W · 367 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…d137backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11d1…0b41backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 463 | 19.9%92 W · 371 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…08ebbacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29b…da59backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3900…fb4ebacked Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 237 | 29.5%70 W · 167 L | -11.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…536fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726a…196bbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsthis page
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ shotsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ shotsNo won
- Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 3+ shotsNo won
- Miguel Almirón: 1+ assistsNo won
- Miguel Almirón: 1+ goalsNo won
- Miguel Almirón: 1+ shotsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shotsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.