Fifa International · resolved market
Michael Olise: 2+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d6894feda6a192cba1bec88839a180eb70903ab258028ba3d0867f188f57653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85f0…3f67backed Yes | 8c | 87,090$6,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,608.07 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…09cbbacked Yes | 7c | 14,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 98 | 23.5%23 W · 75 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…0381backed Yes | 7c | 4,221$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.5 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…4448backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 25.7%29 W · 84 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 28.5%41 W · 103 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e41…3745backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…f666backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 16.3%26 W · 134 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…49e9backed Yes | 8c | 613$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 610.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…77f0backed Yes | 8c | 592.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Yes | 8c | 545.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…b000backed Yes | 7c | 514.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450a…6ab0backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d34…dca1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 438 | 19.2%84 W · 354 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…fe53backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 74 | 12.2%9 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856b…d0f8backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 7c | 310$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…d454backed Yes | 7c | 289.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…0564backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…897dbacked Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 167 | 47.3%79 W · 88 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…be19backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 323 | 12.1%39 W · 284 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…3918backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 46.4%58 W · 67 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…63f7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…a8bdbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 17.6%22 W · 103 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 377 | 47.7%180 W · 197 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…205cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…5e7fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michael Olise: 2+ goalsthis page
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 1+ goalsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ goalsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ shotsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ shotsNo won
- Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 3+ shotsNo won
- Miguel Almirón: 1+ assistsNo won
- Miguel Almirón: 1+ goalsNo won
- Miguel Almirón: 1+ shotsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shotsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.