Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x681825292b559fc8b3af8b579a1bc327769b40493313065f87be71fb186a63c8

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,826
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,826 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1420…9daabacked Yes	7c	16,914$1,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,105.03	361	23.5%85 W · 276 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6639…0e59backed Yes	10c	10,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ff…7ccbbacked Yes	10c	4,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	254	18.1%46 W · 208 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1c…e369backed Yes	11c	2,427$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267	100	51%51 W · 49 L	+8.4wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes	11c	2,091$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e6…d83dbacked Yes	11c	1,703$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.34	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-12.6wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	130	21.5%28 W · 102 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11fd…a851backed Yes	10c	1,050$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.03	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x226c…7d87backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b8c…4df4backed Yes	10c	999$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8536…bed6backed Yes	9c	666.67$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-48.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x980b…8dffbacked Yes	9c	537.33$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	264	38.6%102 W · 162 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a58…b808backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	228	35.5%81 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a4…5e8fbacked Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-3.1wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8134…04d3backed Yes	10c	494.8$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.48	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7195…f4eebacked Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	106	17.9%19 W · 87 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	9c	388.36$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.47	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x155d…3ec8backed Yes	10c	376.4$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	255	32.9%84 W · 171 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	9c	345$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.05	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x762c…9f9fbacked Yes	12c	322.62$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.75	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83f6…25b6backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	139	32.4%45 W · 94 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	6c	299.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x828b…fe53backed Yes	9c	277.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	74	12.2%9 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35a9…2dd7backed Yes	10c	257.8$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e6…5a71backed Yes	6c	241.94$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2291…b0c9backed Yes	11c	238.36$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.22	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1501…783fbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	80	13.8%11 W · 69 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb29…947abacked Yes	7c	184.59$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	188	43.1%81 W · 107 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	80	32.5%26 W · 54 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb792…c49fbacked Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	54.6%71 W · 59 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x862c…9d40backed Yes	9c	155.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes	9c	143.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a7…3becbacked Yes	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e14…fd73backed Yes	10c	121.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0341…9294backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	494	26.7%132 W · 362 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	11c	110$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	463	19.9%92 W · 371 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b83…008bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9382…a673backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	166	29.5%49 W · 117 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45e3…57e3backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f0…0c50backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsthis page
Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
Désiré Doué: 2+ shotsNo won
Julio César Enciso: 1+ goalsNo won
Julio César Enciso: 2+ goalsNo won
Julio César Enciso: 2+ shotsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assistsYes won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsNo won
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 1+ assistsNo won
Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 2+ assistsNo won
Michael Olise: 2+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 2+ shotsNo won
Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
Michael Olise: 3+ shotsNo won
Miguel Almirón: 1+ assistsNo won
Miguel Almirón: 1+ goalsNo won
Miguel Almirón: 1+ shotsYes won
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shotsYes won
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsNo won
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shotsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event