TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,841

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes42c717.53$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.0470741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No63c490.27$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.0761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x572e…872bbacked Yes36c462.17$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.178236.6%30 W · 52 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd10…7544backed Yes14c352.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.443548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No62c332.93$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.9495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes39c305.34$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.7996620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes41c300.2$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.5923269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No44c277.53$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.773,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c264.58$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No14c256.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.168,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb918…2406backed No21c229.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes44c199.99$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.992532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c0…d4dabacked No59c198$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.435381.1%43 W · 10 L+8.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+27.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No73c188.26$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3967158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes42c177.77$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.396,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c164$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.945,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c162.15$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed Yes12c155.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9614119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No46c142.51$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.296,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No73c140.17$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.911,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed Yes80c137.58$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5815660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x952d…ab8abacked Yes45c132.81$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.39560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes38c132$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3461365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No60c123.14$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.557,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No36c120$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.694,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No70c113.59$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4841845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes17c106.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.412,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No55c106.95$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.391,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6071031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed Yes30c99.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709552.6%50 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No62c88.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.041,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c86.23$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.699,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74be…b301backed Yes47c76.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes30c75.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.792,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes38c74.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.441,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a5…7752backed Yes46c69.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.621050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes40c65.6$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.635,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes27c65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.551,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No70c62$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.322,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes67c60.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.272,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f86…0b92backed No74c60.14$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.411936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1253…2129backed Yes42c59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.11030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes37c57.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.272,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02e2…9177backed No65c56.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.783663.9%23 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No46c53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4448261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No55c51.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3928737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes35c50.05$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.588725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0da…2342backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303974.4%29 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No54c49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No62c48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed No31c47.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x896a…e470backed Yes45c47.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.021855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x992b…d9d1backed Yes41c46.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.327732.5%25 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes44c45.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8847935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc293…c389backed Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.453886.8%33 W · 5 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick70cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x34c5…c1c8backed Yes39c44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.73450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes41c43.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.62,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes31c42.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.122,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes71c42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2466758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes35c41.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9728441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c39.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No64c39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.065,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b72…42b9backed Yes39c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1880735.4%286 W · 521 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes40c37.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9211334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c36.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.914,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No72c35.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.651,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x358b…3722backed No56c32.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1852533.1%174 W · 351 L+21.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c31.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf06b…f629backed Yes41c30.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.294932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.15570.9%39 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81a6…070fbacked Yes39c29.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.95152.9%27 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+49.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No58c29.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.946456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No72c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4499571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fef…66ecbacked No56c25.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.513545.7%16 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No60c25.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.565965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c25.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.953,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed No60c25.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1576936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No65c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No69c24.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.62,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes42c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.882,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No59c23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No64c22.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba0a…8ea3backed No59c21.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.693568.6%24 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No58c21.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3191861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.643663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No59c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No60c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No63c18.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.872,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd7…8622backed No66c18.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3517766.7%118 W · 59 L-0.8wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No59c18.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes69c16.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.122,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed No76c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4553258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x558b…f41bbacked No68c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2728660.8%174 W · 112 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05cc…1e1dbacked No80c13.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.