Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551c1830b89407c98b3f784fd89c539cbbd291e8f0d2ef95cdc88444d62ffb9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 717.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.04 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 63c | 490.27$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.07 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 36c | 462.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.17 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…7544backed Yes | 14c | 352.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.44 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 62c | 332.93$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.94 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 39c | 305.34$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.79 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 41c | 300.2$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 277.53$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 264.58$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 14c | 256.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb918…2406backed No | 21c | 229.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 59c | 198$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 73c | 188.26$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 177.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 164$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 162.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 12c | 155.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.96 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 142.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 140.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 80c | 137.58$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked Yes | 45c | 132.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 38c | 132$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 123.14$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 70c | 113.59$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 106.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 106.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 88.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 86.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 47c | 76.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 75.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 38c | 74.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed Yes | 46c | 69.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 65.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 67c | 60.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f86…0b92backed No | 74c | 60.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1253…2129backed Yes | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 57.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e2…9177backed No | 65c | 56.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 55c | 51.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 35c | 50.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 31c | 47.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…e470backed Yes | 45c | 47.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 41c | 46.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…c1c8backed Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 43.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 31c | 42.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 40c | 37.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 36.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 35.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed No | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 41c | 30.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 39c | 29.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 58c | 29.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 56c | 25.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 60c | 25.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 25.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 60c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 24.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 22.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed No | 59c | 21.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 58c | 21.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 18.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…1e1dbacked No | 80c | 13.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.