TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Liquid (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liquidof EYEBALLERS, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,553 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa803…2949backed EYEBALLERS41c9,049$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.3510739.3%42 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Liquid63c7,681$4,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,856.1471645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Liquid60c5,957$3,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.5384454.3%458 W · 386 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid61c4,443$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.837,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed Liquid64c4,394$2,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.212449.2%61 W · 63 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed EYEBALLERS37c3,016$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.716237.1%23 W · 39 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed EYEBALLERS37c2,042$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.1475450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Liquid62c2,000$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.481,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed EYEBALLERS41c1,951$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010651.9%55 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked EYEBALLERS21c1,931$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40019047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed EYEBALLERS42c1,910$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.4241850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Liquid61c1,822$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.321,03361.6%636 W · 397 L+87.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked EYEBALLERS36c1,800$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64810945%49 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Liquid63c1,800$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6668846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Liquid64c1,569$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.4420458.3%119 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed EYEBALLERS40c1,567$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.8354732.2%176 W · 371 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03d8…e73cbacked EYEBALLERS38c1,455$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.531553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Liquid64c1,454$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.571,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Liquid69c1,345$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.784,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3462…de48backed EYEBALLERS37c1,342$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed EYEBALLERS39c1,291$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed EYEBALLERS38c1,289$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked EYEBALLERS37c1,252$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.211,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Liquid65c1,231$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.4556732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Liquid79c1,198$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.566,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54a…4b6fbacked Liquid62c1,123$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.068852.3%46 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked EYEBALLERS36c1,087$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.3816738.9%65 W · 102 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf248…72bfbacked EYEBALLERS20c1,052$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.334557.8%26 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Liquid80c1,000$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.883,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed EYEBALLERS37c956$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.285,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Liquid57c931$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.012,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Liquid61c877.18$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.65,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked EYEBALLERS33c873.27$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3538636%139 W · 247 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…3fa0backed EYEBALLERS38c785.99$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6850043%215 W · 285 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed EYEBALLERS38c727.02$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27698856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Liquid61c712.62$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9280744.6%360 W · 447 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Liquid63c699.6$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7161154.7%334 W · 277 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked EYEBALLERS39c642.58$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25052636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked Liquid58c617$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed EYEBALLERS38c608.88$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1611337.2%42 W · 71 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked EYEBALLERS39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2341,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked EYEBALLERS39c599.96$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.4225337.9%96 W · 157 L-14.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Liquid63c566$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.0829244.5%130 W · 162 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Liquid65c557$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7354346.2%251 W · 292 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Liquid76c543.49$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6828434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed EYEBALLERS37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023940.2%96 W · 143 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed EYEBALLERS37c531$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5785446.4%396 W · 458 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Liquid66c508$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9946344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7353…b476backed EYEBALLERS40c501.39$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009246.7%43 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Liquid65c500$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.5548948.7%238 W · 251 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed EYEBALLERS38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19053444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed Liquid58c500$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21076546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked EYEBALLERS37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18527530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed EYEBALLERS25c493.75$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4426743.1%115 W · 152 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed EYEBALLERS41c476$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.1643933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Liquid63c473$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.1649745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed EYEBALLERS30c452.63$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13521137.4%79 W · 132 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1880…f087backed EYEBALLERS21c450.48$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2570%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed EYEBALLERS23c432.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Liquid62c432$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.8227443.1%118 W · 156 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Liquid63c430$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7239239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed EYEBALLERS46c391.3$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18024429.5%72 W · 172 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1349…359bbacked Liquid74c366.34$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.982343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed EYEBALLERS36c349.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9917849.4%88 W · 90 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde5a…4db5backed EYEBALLERS21c332.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.266144.3%27 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed EYEBALLERS37c330.42$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9587244.8%391 W · 481 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x953f…15e6backed Liquid61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8727556.4%155 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed EYEBALLERS38c313.36$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6121723%50 W · 167 L-35.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-61.2%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Liquid79c295.72$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6233448.2%161 W · 173 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked EYEBALLERS37c289$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.733240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked EYEBALLERS19c272.28$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.122,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed EYEBALLERS42c269$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5333044.5%147 W · 183 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed EYEBALLERS41c258$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.455625%14 W · 42 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed EYEBALLERS36c236.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3250340.2%202 W · 301 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1f…a252backed EYEBALLERS38c215.79$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8215033.3%50 W · 100 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Liquid61c214.68$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6833352.6%175 W · 158 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc995…2224backed EYEBALLERS40c214.18$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868644.2%38 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9b…cbe5backed EYEBALLERS38c210.8$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8144244.1%195 W · 247 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Liquid80c208.53$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.891,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Liquid59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8232844.5%146 W · 182 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…a779backed EYEBALLERS36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed EYEBALLERS48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965050%25 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Liquid60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8018063.9%115 W · 65 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Liquid58c191.81$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5614148.9%69 W · 72 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Liquid68c190.09$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4795849.8%477 W · 481 L-17.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…8917backed Liquid62c190$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfffe…4e6cbacked EYEBALLERS38c186.49$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5327749.5%137 W · 140 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Liquid60c182.92$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1719549.7%97 W · 98 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked EYEBALLERS37c181.8$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2740950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked EYEBALLERS39c174.45$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.042240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed EYEBALLERS32c168.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4933237%123 W · 209 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0af…3b75backed Liquid64c160.02$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6118342.1%77 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Liquid63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7369635.3%246 W · 450 L-49.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea7a…446bbacked EYEBALLERS38c157.76$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.956141%25 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf16…65a6backed Liquid64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2523557.4%135 W · 100 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Liquid64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2561338.2%234 W · 379 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked EYEBALLERS41c151.6$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1629044.8%130 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked EYEBALLERS40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.535744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed EYEBALLERS21c145.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.611,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked EYEBALLERS35c142.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9158343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.