TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Falcons Force (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
INOX Divisionof INOX Division, Falcons Force
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,423
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,423 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9279…4748backed Falcons Force30c9,256$2,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,746.4319057.9%110 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7460…de6ebacked INOX Division55c6,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9543951.7%227 W · 212 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Falcons Force46c2,426$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.5216343.6%71 W · 92 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed INOX Division54c2,374$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.8443455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0478…37c3backed INOX Division58c2,306$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.749952.5%52 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…50f0backed Falcons Force37c1,896$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed INOX Division58c1,768$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.5323356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked INOX Division59c1,281$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.8635847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e4d…b4cabacked Falcons Force43c1,142$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.693531.4%11 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed INOX Division80c1,026$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.681,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed INOX Division72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28019660.7%119 W · 77 L-13.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-7.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked INOX Division71c913.26$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.987,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Falcons Force21c879.18$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.265,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Falcons Force21c691.92$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.231,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed INOX Division58c679.99$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.9935153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Falcons Force33c673.87$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.142,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed INOX Division62c661.45$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.8152150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Falcons Force18c618.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3335940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4087…048bbacked Falcons Force41c546$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.867850%39 W · 39 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed Falcons Force26c545.12$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14212750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Falcons Force42c515.71$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9362248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed INOX Division77c435.32$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.34,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50d7…f9bbbacked Falcons Force23c411.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b27…0635backed INOX Division59c400$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16631749.5%157 W · 160 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Falcons Force45c399.9$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.385,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56af…3065backed Falcons Force19c389.16$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.945820.7%12 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9369…a94cbacked Falcons Force42c383.45$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Falcons Force44c381.82$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16854543.5%237 W · 308 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a1…e38bbacked Falcons Force42c364.51$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.888441.7%35 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Falcons Force34c340.96$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.526,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Falcons Force37c306$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9916051.3%82 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked INOX Division66c305.95$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.112,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Falcons Force38c304$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.315,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d4a…c078backed INOX Division58c294.33$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9412271.3%87 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Falcons Force31c283$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.221,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed INOX Division72c278.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.922567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed INOX Division58c274.49$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2929543.1%127 W · 168 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0c…a98fbacked Falcons Force40c249.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.885848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Falcons Force44c247.86$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10889046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b9…a687backed Falcons Force42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004245.2%19 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece5…6de0backed INOX Division58c235$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.713449.3%66 W · 68 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed Falcons Force17c229.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.091,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed INOX Division70c229.23$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7773948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…4e6abacked INOX Division58c223.73$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8726554.3%144 W · 121 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Falcons Force30c215.69$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.682,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked INOX Division68c192.82$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Falcons Force36c181.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.431,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed INOX Division71c180$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.693261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d1…2f08backed INOX Division77c175.03$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0915846.8%74 W · 84 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd7…7842backed Falcons Force32c174.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.921225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed INOX Division69c167.22$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.362,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked INOX Division73c142.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.692,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd1d…6f23backed INOX Division72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8913960.4%84 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed INOX Division72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.895972.9%43 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed INOX Division59c120.56$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0637057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed INOX Division60c119.79$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8161054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked INOX Division62c119.76$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.542,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked INOX Division64c118.34$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.461,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cae…3342backed INOX Division58c110.24$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.244872.9%35 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed Falcons Force42c107.89$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.314645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked INOX Division64c104.16$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xded3…c56bbacked Falcons Force15c103.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153033.3%10 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Falcons Force28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2875833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a30…7039backed INOX Division59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.884454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked INOX Division56c97.75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0172353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed INOX Division70c95.34$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.679951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Falcons Force36c92.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.523,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Falcons Force45c90.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4611540.9%47 W · 68 L-13.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xac33…fda0backed INOX Division58c89.98$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.797146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Falcons Force29c88.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2625440.6%103 W · 151 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Falcons Force41c85.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9655738.4%214 W · 343 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4d…60f8backed Falcons Force21c84.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.741741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f56…50edbacked INOX Division58c82.08$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1511656.9%66 W · 50 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed INOX Division59c81.6$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.857352.1%38 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb74…ce3bbacked Falcons Force40c75.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Falcons Force37c73.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.535141.6%146 W · 205 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Falcons Force38c71$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.932,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5be…bc54backed Falcons Force31c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44325.6%11 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed INOX Division72c69.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0449766.8%332 W · 165 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2753…bb34backed Falcons Force28c68.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.123751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cf1…d7febacked Falcons Force18c65.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7223835.3%84 W · 154 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed INOX Division60c63.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3460954%329 W · 280 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3211…9ee3backed INOX Division72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.818951.3%97 W · 92 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked INOX Division72c57.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.141,35252%703 W · 649 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d4…e361backed INOX Division59c57.38$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.591687.5%14 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.29per pick59cpaid+56%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Falcons Force25c55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.732,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1578…538cbacked Falcons Force20c53.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f5…7a95backed INOX Division73c50.68$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6823751.5%122 W · 115 L-14.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Falcons Force40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed INOX Division75c46.06$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2952369.4%363 W · 160 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…1248backed Falcons Force39c41.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.261030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-42.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Falcons Force44c41.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.231625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-50.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdcc2…8b9bbacked INOX Division69c38.38$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.915854.4%86 W · 72 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a9…e7d8backed Falcons Force42c36.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.287252.8%38 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Falcons Force45c36.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2751446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7daa…c6c2backed Falcons Force29c35.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-57.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Falcons Force43c34.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.842,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Falcons Force47c33.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7949850.2%250 W · 248 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6894…1528backed INOX Division58c31.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.039450%47 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…f571backed INOX Division72c29.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.172157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.