TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Shanxi Loongs vs. Shanghai Sharks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Shanxi Loongs, Shanghai Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,382
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,382 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8397…c78dbacked Shanxi Loongs20c5,213$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Shanxi Loongs19c4,868$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.516246.8%29 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Shanghai Sharks70c3,582$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.782445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked Shanxi Loongs21c2,793$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.196116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed Shanxi Loongs24c2,282$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.622030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Shanxi Loongs20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016235.2%57 W · 105 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Shanxi Loongs27c1,909$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.042825%7 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf348…e543backed Shanxi Loongs22c1,700$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.063823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Shanghai Sharks61c1,582$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.6654251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Shanxi Loongs18c1,392$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.784427.3%12 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shanxi Loongs18c1,205$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.7224430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b7…125cbacked Shanxi Loongs45c1,111$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Shanxi Loongs3c975.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.721598.2%13 W · 146 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-66.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Shanghai Sharks77c781.66$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.66887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad5…b3edbacked Shanghai Sharks66c605.52$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.529100%9 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce53…e5babacked Shanghai Sharks66c542.01$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Shanxi Loongs16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805721.1%12 W · 45 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed Shanghai Sharks80c498$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Shanxi Loongs20c440.52$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.12937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Shanxi Loongs47c428.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+40.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Shanxi Loongs17c400.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0822231.5%70 W · 152 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…6ad7backed Shanxi Loongs17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65af…df77backed Shanghai Sharks79c380.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.21070%7 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…099ebacked Shanghai Sharks66c365.99$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.874100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Shanxi Loongs19c363.73$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010736.4%39 W · 68 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked Shanxi Loongs23c348.04$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804920.4%10 W · 39 L-7.5wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-48.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Shanxi Loongs41c342.8$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5643543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Shanxi Loongs31c315.28$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0828943.6%126 W · 163 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d6f…7135backed Shanghai Sharks45c307.08$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.893455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a54…4e11backed Shanghai Sharks67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b87…12bbbacked Shanxi Loongs17c295.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2367…93a1backed Shanghai Sharks67c295$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.521250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shanxi Loongs18c257.42$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8512042.5%51 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Shanxi Loongs9c225$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.251735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe438…d8adbacked Shanghai Sharks80c215$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436100%6 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Shanghai Sharks76c203.33$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.335271.2%37 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Shanxi Loongs43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8614037.9%53 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Shanxi Loongs13c198$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.086137.7%23 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Shanxi Loongs26c195.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5525517.6%45 W · 210 L-29.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-38.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Shanghai Sharks53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.683060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x627f…06dcbacked Shanghai Sharks80c188.19$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Shanghai Sharks80c187.5$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.58760.9%53 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Shanxi Loongs18c177.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.326929%20 W · 49 L-9.3wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Shanxi Loongs9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44045%18 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Shanxi Loongs21c159.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.112343.5%10 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+57.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shanghai Sharks66c158.46$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8835234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Shanxi Loongs24c150.44$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.544431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc112…d1efbacked Shanghai Sharks67c149.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…a4c6backed Shanghai Sharks66c139.4$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.87450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Shanxi Loongs39c130.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.221752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shanghai Sharks79c125.18$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0334344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61bb…1627backed Shanghai Sharks80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.41080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Shanxi Loongs19c118$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4926935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed Shanghai Sharks61c116.5$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.561942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Shanxi Loongs45c116.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.892729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab30…88dbbacked Shanghai Sharks44c116.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb30c…6cefbacked Shanxi Loongs42c104.74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.931717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Shanxi Loongs37c102.47$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.373458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622b…5495backed Shanxi Loongs15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Shanxi Loongs34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x997b…641bbacked Shanghai Sharks58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6281…e326backed Shanghai Sharks80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8c…3d1abacked Shanghai Sharks50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+42.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb83a…c500backed Shanxi Loongs24c98.85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Shanxi Loongs56c89.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505446.3%25 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd141…5e5fbacked Shanghai Sharks80c87.5$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Shanxi Loongs43c86.65$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.455238.5%20 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Shanghai Sharks80c85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172352.2%12 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Shanghai Sharks57c75.09$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd790…a24ebacked Shanxi Loongs21c74.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.662050%10 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd29e…eef8backed Shanghai Sharks70c70.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacf9…626dbacked Shanxi Loongs43c70$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…d72dbacked Shanxi Loongs30c69.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.824643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b96…f098backed Shanxi Loongs21c69.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.747241.7%30 W · 42 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Shanxi Loongs34c68.79$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c1d…d05ebacked Shanxi Loongs23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Shanghai Sharks64c60.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.816142.6%26 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5dcf…87b8backed Shanghai Sharks62c60.03$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f57…3339backed Shanxi Loongs27c57.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.441040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Shanghai Sharks80c57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Shanghai Sharks79c56.79$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7719748.2%95 W · 102 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Shanxi Loongs22c54.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Shanxi Loongs19c53.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102119%4 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34b7…7b0dbacked Shanghai Sharks46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dcf…f174backed Shanxi Loongs48c49.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Shanxi Loongs56c48.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.464660.9%28 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+47.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fb7…d873backed Shanghai Sharks53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171675%12 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+47%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2a7…3576backed Shanghai Sharks68c47.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1752…682bbacked Shanghai Sharks58c46.24$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+65%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed Shanghai Sharks72c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.753357.6%19 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…899bbacked Shanxi Loongs27c40.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0320936.4%76 W · 133 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Shanghai Sharks79c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.43751.4%19 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Shanghai Sharks59c39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.996450%32 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe253…b9c7backed Shanghai Sharks52c37.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.132642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd45…f2aabacked Shanxi Loongs42c36.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Shanghai Sharks59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.353551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb3c…b4f5backed Shanxi Loongs45c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.751735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Shanxi Loongs46c34.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.752050%10 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Shanghai Sharks80c34$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x26eb…22d0backed Shanghai Sharks78c32.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.071154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.