TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Anyone's Legend, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$166,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,062

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,657 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe015…6ffdbacked Top Esports40c46,647$18,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,203.8896048.8%468 W · 492 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Anyone's Legend61c27,984$17,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,070.5317949.2%88 W · 91 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Top Esports38c21,873$8,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,561.331,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Anyone's Legend62c21,522$13,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,343.4354353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Top Esports37c6,776$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,285.1427735.7%99 W · 178 L-12.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c14…68f3backed Anyone's Legend2c4,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+73.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d2…fe85backed Anyone's Legend59c3,901$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9215543.9%68 W · 87 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Anyone's Legend34c3,648$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.732,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Anyone's Legend62c2,635$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,635.0219648%94 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Anyone's Legend59c2,439$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.7276953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Anyone's Legend61c2,200$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.631,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed Anyone's Legend62c2,081$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.7124436.9%90 W · 154 L-18.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4afb…ed2bbacked Top Esports39c2,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.9611435.1%40 W · 74 L+0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3081…c666backed Top Esports38c1,853$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.965139.2%20 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x045d…185dbacked Anyone's Legend62c1,781$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.8763458.4%370 W · 264 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7af0…509dbacked Anyone's Legend64c1,574$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.4225268.3%172 W · 80 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Anyone's Legend62c1,200$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.9949549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Anyone's Legend46c1,146$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.8414735.4%52 W · 95 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4722…2abfbacked Anyone's Legend2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed Anyone's Legend2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+74.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…2af9backed Top Esports39c1,031$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9755750.4%281 W · 276 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Anyone's Legend3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301330.8%4 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick4cpaid+522.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf26f…8f93backed Anyone's Legend2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+149.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f18…9aa7backed Anyone's Legend3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Anyone's Legend2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1617610.2%18 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Anyone's Legend3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305322.6%12 W · 41 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+27%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Anyone's Legend62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929e…1715backed Anyone's Legend3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a4…ebccbacked Anyone's Legend3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df3…db0bbacked Anyone's Legend2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+514.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed Anyone's Legend59c975.4$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.4941347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Top Esports39c897.4$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.4115148.3%73 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Anyone's Legend14c871$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9225340.7%103 W · 150 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6165…e38fbacked Anyone's Legend59c834.88$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.58650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f7…360bbacked Anyone's Legend63c834.67$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.845350.9%27 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Top Esports59c827.4$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.3410030%30 W · 70 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb188…1b06backed Anyone's Legend59c826.61$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.78852.3%46 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Anyone's Legend21c815.76$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.4833124.2%80 W · 251 L-33.2wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked Anyone's Legend62c800$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49666437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Top Esports37c777$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.511,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3761…39e1backed Anyone's Legend59c699.99$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.9911150.5%56 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9eab…7e13backed Anyone's Legend59c682.78$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.8416045.6%73 W · 87 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8e3f…6941backed Anyone's Legend59c668.15$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.2139447.2%186 W · 208 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe56b…2c03backed Anyone's Legend63c620.83$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.1210938.5%42 W · 67 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x941e…9775backed Anyone's Legend59c593.51$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.1717067.1%114 W · 56 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7cb…4088backed Anyone's Legend61c529.79$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.618647.7%41 W · 45 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Anyone's Legend18c500$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8814032.1%45 W · 95 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5886…fe3bbacked Anyone's Legend3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151428.6%4 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.25per pick3cpaid+709.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed Anyone's Legend18c500$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810435.6%37 W · 67 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed Anyone's Legend18c500$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889537.9%36 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Anyone's Legend21c433$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.642124.7%104 W · 317 L-51.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-47%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Anyone's Legend18c417$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.418038.9%70 W · 110 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Anyone's Legend64c395.63$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.268557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Anyone's Legend21c350$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.643233.8%146 W · 286 L-20.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Anyone's Legend3c349.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122181.8%4 W · 214 L+0.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Anyone's Legend62c340.92$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.3730845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4d…0486backed Anyone's Legend64c339.67$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.392147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Anyone's Legend62c337.07$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.192,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd9…2862backed Anyone's Legend59c330.64$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.086651.5%34 W · 32 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Anyone's Legend59c330.64$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0811659.5%69 W · 47 L+12.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x069b…e8afbacked Top Esports38c328.24$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.516048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Anyone's Legend60c325.33$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.29750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Anyone's Legend24c323$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.457222.7%130 W · 442 L-48.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x796d…9551backed Anyone's Legend24c323$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.44628.3%13 W · 33 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-39.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Top Esports42c319.44$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2734250.6%173 W · 169 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeed6…ec56backed Anyone's Legend63c310.41$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.5620649.5%102 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Anyone's Legend14c300$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4125331.2%79 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Anyone's Legend63c299.75$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.841,00748.2%485 W · 522 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bd…f2bdbacked Top Esports38c256.61$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.369635.4%34 W · 62 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Top Esports44c248.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5316035%56 W · 104 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked Anyone's Legend59c247.98$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3110652.8%56 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb1…b580backed Top Esports43c246.69$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.345152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882f…50b8backed Anyone's Legend63c232.81$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.6752646.2%243 W · 283 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Top Esports43c224.6$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.021,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Top Esports42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11663646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1329…fd4dbacked Anyone's Legend53c195.58$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2723945.6%109 W · 130 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Anyone's Legend60c191.85$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3782161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0b…4db0backed Top Esports52c186.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7711651.7%60 W · 56 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6510…36d1backed Anyone's Legend14c173$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.397327.4%20 W · 53 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Anyone's Legend24c173$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.572637.7%274 W · 452 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Anyone's Legend59c170.43$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5523649.2%116 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb503…7552backed Anyone's Legend60c168.36$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5116346.6%76 W · 87 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Anyone's Legend58c167.04$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.599747.1%470 W · 527 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ce7…81a3backed Anyone's Legend59c167.02$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.5411645.7%53 W · 63 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed4…f891backed Anyone's Legend59c165.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5451247.3%242 W · 270 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Anyone's Legend61c164.89$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6385836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5282…95dcbacked Anyone's Legend60c160.7$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4216954.4%92 W · 77 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Anyone's Legend16c160$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.634235.7%122 W · 220 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7e7…2779backed Anyone's Legend63c155.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.259662.5%60 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaff…5f75backed Anyone's Legend9c147.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.793834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf06…c9ffbacked Anyone's Legend48c144.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9163352%329 W · 304 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5b0…38c4backed Anyone's Legend59c135.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.019643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Anyone's Legend61c133.06$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.179546.3%44 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed Anyone's Legend64c129.79$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0724656.1%138 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Anyone's Legend59c129.7$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.5213239.4%52 W · 80 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Top Esports36c115.82$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1312840.6%52 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fe…6a33backed Anyone's Legend59c110.15$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.993253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+23.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked Top Esports39c100.95$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5810949.5%54 W · 55 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Anyone's Legend63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6379345.4%360 W · 433 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aff…c55ebacked Anyone's Legend58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585952.5%31 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.