Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56f5fe93f9bc30769d95b8f0dc62466c9fec02400ffac3f718142584d15d24d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over | 0c | 15,659$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 30c | 6,669$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.7 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 5,401$4,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.25 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…958ebacked Over | 18c | 4,652$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.62 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 78c | 2,627$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 18c | 1,712$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 22c | 1,483$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.81 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…1964backed Under | 78c | 641.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 22c | 539.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…6cadbacked Over | 17c | 513.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Under | 77c | 480.52$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 78c | 463$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…fa34backed Over | 32c | 437.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 14c | 428.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43e5…e24bbacked Under | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 25c | 375$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe4…8f49backed Under | 78c | 229.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1741…6f97backed Under | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0a…720dbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 77c | 194.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 80c | 185.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…4f02backed Under | 77c | 130.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…a537backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 188 | 58.5%110 W · 78 L | +16.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64d0…54bfbacked Over | 12c | 90.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 77c | 84.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 14c | 80.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Under | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Over | 23c | 53.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Over | 23c | 49.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Over | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c06…dd56backed Over | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…41adbacked Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…e618backed Under | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Under | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Under | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Under | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
- AS Roma vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)AS Roma won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.