Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57707c9747ea13a92456b3d30e51b39e4e31eff8f037888e98636c7ef9dc3e65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 39c | 8,351$3,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,241.08 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 47c | 5,999$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.45 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 3,546$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.74 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 58c | 3,377$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.3 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 2,961$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.47 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 2,777$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.71 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 44c | 1,814$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.04 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.39 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…8086backed Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 175 | 44%77 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 444$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Under | 49c | 410.73$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.92 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 62c | 392.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.26 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Under | 58c | 366.53$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.94 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…1badbacked Over | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 58c | 327$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.34 | 370 | 36.2%134 W · 236 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 35c | 315$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…0343backed Under | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 237 | 41.8%99 W · 138 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Under | 60c | 201.4$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 43c | 196.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 27c | 183$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf70a…541dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 35c | 170.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0594…6d4dbacked Over | 66c | 160.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 45c | 153.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a5…a875backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 42c | 148$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Under | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Over | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…025cbacked Under | 78c | 101.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 22.3%73 W · 255 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Under | 49c | 91.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 57c | 87.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 45c | 85.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 83.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 58c | 79.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Over | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…0956backed Over | 57c | 54.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…79a8backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddb…bedfbacked Over | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 252 | 56%141 W · 111 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 124 | 46%57 W · 67 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x548f…43b6backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…c836backed Over | 45c | 26.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…cb5ebacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x123c…e814backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f001backed Over | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…4edbbacked Over | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3647…6250backed Over | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139a…34bbbacked Under | 59c | 20.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…1c2dbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d2…d94cbacked Under | 59c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf598…4144backed Under | 57c | 18.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 3.5this page
- Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Manchester City (-2.5)Manchester City won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.