NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Capitals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57bbb568f8cfde4249dc32ceee6f1a62fa25b756fdc61fa34eaaf48f2a7e4a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $900,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $949,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $900,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 585 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Lightning | 48c | 508,432$244,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264,066.64 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Capitals | 52c | 136,698$70,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70,523.61 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Capitals | 54c | 115,658$62,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,124.95 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Lightning | 48c | 107,986$51,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,152.77 | 177 | 49.2%87 W · 90 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Capitals | 52c | 53,000$27,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,489.87 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 51c | 38,732$19,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,868.04 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Capitals | 53c | 35,000$18,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,550 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Capitals | 52c | 31,650$16,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,458 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Capitals | 51c | 26,200$13,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,414 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 50c | 25,586$12,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,875.21 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Capitals | 51c | 21,202$10,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,813.03 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…e868backed Capitals | 52c | 18,000$9,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,360 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Capitals | 52c | 17,075$8,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,879.26 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Capitals | 52c | 15,925$8,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,201.13 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Capitals | 52c | 12,800$6,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,611.66 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…1f13backed Capitals | 52c | 12,430$6,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,463.6 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…2f26backed Lightning | 47c | 8,995$4,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,767.22 | 705 | 47.7%336 W · 369 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…f2c3backed Capitals | 52c | 7,679$3,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,993 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Capitals | 52c | 7,456$3,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,891.78 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 51c | 5,675$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,894.55 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Capitals | 52c | 5,420$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.4 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Capitals | 52c | 5,099$2,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.41 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked Capitals | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Capitals | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…380dbacked Capitals | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52e8…c4cdbacked Lightning | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals | 52c | 4,849$2,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520.86 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Lightning | 47c | 4,500$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,385 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Lightning | 47c | 4,263$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.55 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Capitals | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Capitals | 52c | 3,424$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.48 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Capitals | 45c | 3,236$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.2 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Capitals | 52c | 3,200$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Capitals | 52c | 3,116$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.14 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…8860backed Capitals | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Capitals | 53c | 2,955$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566 | 309 | 46.3%143 W · 166 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Capitals | 51c | 2,912$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.54 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Lightning | 75c | 2,911$2,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.79 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Capitals | 53c | 2,868$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.23 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Capitals | 52c | 2,853$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.72 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 68c | 2,851$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.02 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Capitals | 52c | 2,646$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.01 | 622 | 49.4%307 W · 315 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Capitals | 52c | 2,625$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Capitals | 32c | 2,617$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.49 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Capitals | 53c | 2,400$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Capitals | 9c | 2,379$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.74 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Capitals | 40c | 2,279$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.56 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Lightning | 48c | 2,258$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.33 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Capitals | 51c | 2,222$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.22 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Lightning | 48c | 2,200$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Lightning | 48c | 2,153$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.36 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Lightning | 47c | 2,150$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.5 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Lightning | 47c | 2,122$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.66 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Capitals | 52c | 2,013$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.62 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Capitals | 42c | 1,999$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Capitals | 52c | 1,998$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.91 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32bd…c195backed Lightning | 47c | 1,900$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Capitals | 51c | 1,890$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.95 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Capitals | 45c | 1,771$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…fad6backed Capitals | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…9814backed Capitals | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Capitals | 11c | 1,505$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.55 | 132 | 41.7%55 W · 77 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda9…e464backed Lightning | 48c | 1,479$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Capitals | 53c | 1,341$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.73 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…e344backed Capitals | 53c | 1,300$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Capitals | 52c | 1,259$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.77 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Capitals | 1c | 1,222$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Capitals | 26c | 1,190$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…2f35backed Lightning | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Capitals | 31c | 1,016$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.72 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Capitals | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…eecdbacked Lightning | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed Capitals | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27c9…2278backed Capitals | 37c | 999.46$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lightning | 66c | 972.28$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.16 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Capitals | 52c | 958.82$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…714dbacked Lightning | 49c | 910$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…2d1dbacked Capitals | 52c | 900$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd6…25c5backed Capitals | 52c | 870$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…0b56backed Lightning | 49c | 860$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…4130backed Capitals | 52c | 860$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Capitals | 51c | 838.48$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.63 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…3ba3backed Capitals | 52c | 820$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 47c | 803$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.33 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…1760backed Lightning | 48c | 708.33$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.33 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…a7b6backed Capitals | 53c | 707.55$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed Capitals | 10c | 699.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b82…c13dbacked Lightning | 49c | 680$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Capitals | 53c | 641.51$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…6dffbacked Capitals | 52c | 625$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58df…c720backed Lightning | 49c | 618.9$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb60…137abacked Capitals | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Capitals | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Capitals | 53c | 567$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.51 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…1badbacked Lightning | 67c | 535.42$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.69 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Capitals | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Lightning | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 217 | 50.2%109 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…aeabbacked Lightning | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 269 | 55.8%150 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Capitals | 20c | 491.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 19.8%58 W · 235 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d3…d8cbbacked Capitals | 53c | 472.15$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Capitalsthis page
- Lightning vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Lightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.