TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
EDward Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, EDward Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$123,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,737

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,267 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80b1…61cbbacked Bilibili Gaming42c36,074$15,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,151.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730c…b236backed EDward Gaming58c20,000$11,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ea…a07bbacked EDward Gaming58c17,579$10,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,383.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked EDward Gaming57c5,032$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.5778162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed EDward Gaming57c5,016$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,156.713558.5%79 W · 56 L+11.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed EDward Gaming55c4,804$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,161.6634356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Bilibili Gaming41c4,337$1,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.0526838.1%102 W · 166 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked EDward Gaming54c3,634$1,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.041181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick54cpaid+51.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Bilibili Gaming43c3,290$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.692751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+28.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed EDward Gaming58c3,218$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.328751.7%45 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Bilibili Gaming42c2,539$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3542…c3c8backed Bilibili Gaming45c2,300$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03528548.4%138 W · 147 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Bilibili Gaming35c2,000$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.198438.1%32 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Bilibili Gaming42c1,966$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed EDward Gaming52c1,836$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.174060%24 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Bilibili Gaming24c1,789$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.934452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Bilibili Gaming43c1,645$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.3533759.6%201 W · 136 L+18.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked EDward Gaming59c1,523$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.143852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed EDward Gaming77c1,461$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.1432241.9%135 W · 187 L-15.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8f9…fee2backed Bilibili Gaming45c1,434$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64528247.5%134 W · 148 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Bilibili Gaming40c1,369$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.81,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked Bilibili Gaming42c1,268$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.061330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e15…7531backed Bilibili Gaming44c1,242$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.933348.3%161 W · 172 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bilibili Gaming42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50417543.4%76 W · 99 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Bilibili Gaming43c1,111$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.737052.9%37 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbb…39dabacked Bilibili Gaming42c1,099$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.52369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+68.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0275…d186backed EDward Gaming78c1,023$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.071250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked EDward Gaming67c1,017$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.311433.3%38 W · 76 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Bilibili Gaming47c1,016$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed EDward Gaming58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42039142.5%166 W · 225 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Bilibili Gaming43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43028740.8%117 W · 170 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbd2…8414backed Bilibili Gaming42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb44…3eafbacked EDward Gaming61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e50…1efebacked EDward Gaming58c999.99$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Bilibili Gaming50c868.65$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.941,42251.3%729 W · 693 L+49.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked Bilibili Gaming60c832.61$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed EDward Gaming62c753.13$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.1217537.7%66 W · 109 L-14.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d91…bb2abacked EDward Gaming60c692.5$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.67659.2%45 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc04a…af81backed EDward Gaming57c690$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf50c…83edbacked Bilibili Gaming43c690$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Bilibili Gaming43c627.95$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.025651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Bilibili Gaming32c622.32$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7870251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Bilibili Gaming43c603.98$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25934853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked EDward Gaming56c600$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26455152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc1…9932backed Bilibili Gaming49c596.12$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.051752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Bilibili Gaming32c593.67$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4724732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Bilibili Gaming27c499.98$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1376051.7%31 W · 29 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Bilibili Gaming38c499.96$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3831232.7%102 W · 210 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Bilibili Gaming43c493.16$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.064940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c47…7a9fbacked Bilibili Gaming43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012750.4%64 W · 63 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc5…b698backed Bilibili Gaming44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005050%25 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcf…75c6backed Bilibili Gaming35c449.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-80.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed EDward Gaming63c445$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.818835.2%31 W · 57 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2ed…063bbacked Bilibili Gaming45c445$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.25520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-68.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Bilibili Gaming42c439.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.83759.5%22 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Bilibili Gaming47c431.11$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fbc…d6a4backed Bilibili Gaming45c423.38$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.521471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba63…a30ebacked Bilibili Gaming45c414.13$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb5…dcddbacked Bilibili Gaming42c409.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5add…f36fbacked EDward Gaming55c399.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805549.1%27 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Bilibili Gaming51c389.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002638.5%10 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-38%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd116…c736backed Bilibili Gaming55c365.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc128…5b3abacked Bilibili Gaming19c354.05$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.127454.1%40 W · 34 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked EDward Gaming64c328$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.1510840.7%44 W · 64 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bilibili Gaming9c315.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1346526.7%124 W · 341 L-25.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked EDward Gaming60c300$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.3624457.8%141 W · 103 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Bilibili Gaming42c296.05$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3418457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed Bilibili Gaming42c291.76$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.549744.3%43 W · 54 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed EDward Gaming57c287$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.964528.9%13 W · 32 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked Bilibili Gaming54c275.09$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.781758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Bilibili Gaming43c256$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3810749.5%53 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Bilibili Gaming43c248.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1074630.4%14 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed EDward Gaming58c243.66$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2222955%126 W · 103 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked EDward Gaming57c239.45$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1625943.2%112 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d4…5607backed Bilibili Gaming43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3533…6701backed Bilibili Gaming44c227.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb263…bb32backed EDward Gaming57c227.34$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85f9…51b1backed EDward Gaming79c225.25$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.25425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-68.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f80…01bcbacked Bilibili Gaming43c225$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d87…7158backed Bilibili Gaming43c225$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Bilibili Gaming45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Bilibili Gaming55c220.92$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1919…1234backed EDward Gaming57c220$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…dcdcbacked EDward Gaming57c220$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1349…dc1fbacked EDward Gaming56c219.65$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.651741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4087…7d7ebacked EDward Gaming57c217$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2c…2516backed Bilibili Gaming43c217$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da9…f872backed EDward Gaming57c216$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f24…b7e5backed Bilibili Gaming43c215$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52a…9a25backed EDward Gaming57c215$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x763c…ffbcbacked EDward Gaming57c215$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55f0…3cf5backed EDward Gaming47c213.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed EDward Gaming68c212.55$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7721454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaafc…b82bbacked Bilibili Gaming43c211$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ac…e6d4backed Bilibili Gaming43c210$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8196…9377backed Bilibili Gaming43c210$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc019…fa26backed EDward Gaming57c209$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe62c…d9a6backed Bilibili Gaming50c208.79$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.082128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Bilibili Gaming26c208.56$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9851948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c0…c385backed EDward Gaming57c206$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.