Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2740012111310fc7eab5384fa236627631dc319a6cb156b301af474f71ac66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 63c | 4,797$3,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.08 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 35c | 2,179$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 65c | 1,417$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.17 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 38c | 1,336$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.57 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked No | 57c | 1,181$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.85 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 1,167$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.91 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 1,113$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 69c | 913.96$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.13 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…2506backed Yes | 43c | 771$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 69c | 576.62$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.95 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 27c | 574.37$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.57 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 28c | 516.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 47c | 502.31$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 61c | 398.27$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 44c | 343.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.79 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 62c | 342.36$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 291.59$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 29c | 283.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 278.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 257.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 43c | 247.37$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 27c | 237.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 39c | 228.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 220.38$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 69c | 206.91$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9acd…a3febacked Yes | 60c | 202.55$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 33c | 189.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 185.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 39c | 180.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 35c | 177.13$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked Yes | 46c | 174.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 165.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 43c | 157.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 144.67$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 144.39$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 47c | 126.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 25c | 115.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 111.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 45c | 111$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 43c | 110.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 34c | 102.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 66c | 101.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 32c | 97.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 47c | 94.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 32c | 89.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 38c | 89.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…c4b2backed Yes | 63c | 85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 70c | 83.45$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 20c | 81.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 53c | 81.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 65c | 76.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 66c | 76.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 65c | 74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 30c | 62.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 40c | 61.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 59.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 18c | 58.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 23c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 60c | 53.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 36c | 52.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 51.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 34c | 46.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked Yes | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 35c | 45.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked No | 39c | 41.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…b385backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 39.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 65c | 37.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 50c | 37.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 40c | 37.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1122…fbbabacked Yes | 38c | 37.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 32c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 29.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 73c | 29.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 38c | 28.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 70c | 28.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 61c | 28.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…7a72backed No | 37c | 27.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 55c | 25.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd94f…1c53backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…5e85backed Yes | 74c | 23.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 100°F or higher on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on July 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 92-93°F on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.