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Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs Cristian Garin

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toby Samuelof Toby Samuel, Cristian Garin
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$478,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$499,704

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4fd…748bbacked Cristian Garin34c30,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,2008538.8%33 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Cristian Garin33c30,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,899.9713433.6%45 W · 89 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54c2…23adbacked Cristian Garin63c28,520$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toby Samuel49c26,542$12,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,643.259,26736.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L-199.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toby Samuel54c24,817$13,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,375.352,92539.6%1,158 W · 1,767 L-85.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Cristian Garin64c24,141$15,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,509.91,25046.2%578 W · 672 L-1.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toby Samuel74c23,255$17,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,956.084,30545%1,939 W · 2,366 L+20.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd607…842abacked Toby Samuel60c21,717$13,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,717.256553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb1…4dbebacked Cristian Garin65c21,462$14,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,008.351258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41cf…6002backed Cristian Garin7c16,518$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1255315.1%8 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Toby Samuel63c11,964$7,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,405.793,77642.6%1,608 W · 2,168 L-44.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb399…608ebacked Toby Samuel40c11,314$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,814.125350.9%27 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc547…c7f0backed Cristian Garin71c11,285$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,000862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38df…31b5backed Cristian Garin69c10,076$6,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,962.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Toby Samuel62c5,425$3,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.971,21849.2%599 W · 619 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf44…71a4backed Cristian Garin39c5,056$1,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.7110334%35 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca7…39dbbacked Cristian Garin51c4,540$2,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,338.091650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toby Samuel53c4,287$2,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.28,92142.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L-169.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Toby Samuel43c3,858$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.6311438.6%44 W · 70 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe98c…8792backed Toby Samuel37c3,553$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,238.1633440.4%135 W · 199 L-14.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Cristian Garin69c3,253$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.511,29556.6%733 W · 562 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Toby Samuel59c3,080$1,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26637740.6%153 W · 224 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3936…6e40backed Toby Samuel10c3,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7001442.9%6 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick15cpaid+119.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Toby Samuel66c2,704$1,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.6112848.4%62 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6b…50e7backed Toby Samuel10c2,500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2501127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+77.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Cristian Garin33c2,455$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.9674353%394 W · 349 L+37.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86eb…6566backed Cristian Garin67c2,388$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.93560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Cristian Garin55c2,293$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.33,23857.3%1,854 W · 1,384 L+179.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a95…3a16backed Toby Samuel69c2,174$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.917467.6%50 W · 24 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Cristian Garin51c2,013$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.591,85246.6%863 W · 989 L+19.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Cristian Garin54c1,927$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.7111,87743.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L+19.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Toby Samuel37c1,909$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.7556241.5%233 W · 329 L+18.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Toby Samuel60c1,866$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.731,81546.5%844 W · 971 L-6.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Cristian Garin11c1,836$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20225940.9%106 W · 153 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Toby Samuel67c1,485$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.0715253.3%81 W · 71 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Toby Samuel49c1,461$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.125,48656.3%3,088 W · 2,398 L+232.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Toby Samuel67c1,458$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.881,79349.4%885 W · 908 L+62.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Toby Samuel67c1,376$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.543,39748.6%1,652 W · 1,745 L-47.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6170…f3fdbacked Toby Samuel50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60029362.8%184 W · 109 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Cristian Garin1c1,058$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52532%8 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Cristian Garin33c1,041$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.322,58138.7%999 W · 1,582 L+100.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Toby Samuel29c1,000$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71255343.2%239 W · 314 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked Toby Samuel51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49052450.4%264 W · 260 L-27.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked Toby Samuel61c979.59$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.5915351%78 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb2…126abacked Toby Samuel32c937.5$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.526440.2%106 W · 158 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Cristian Garin65c916.08$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,75050.2%878 W · 872 L+29.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Toby Samuel67c915.08$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.988561.2%52 W · 33 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Cristian Garin55c832.42$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.3455351.9%287 W · 266 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Toby Samuel40c775.27$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.371,12337.2%418 W · 705 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Cristian Garin11c755$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.055,03138.5%1,939 W · 3,092 L-20.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ea…ec86backed Toby Samuel10c749.18$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.4wins+0.42per pick20cpaid+210.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Toby Samuel67c746$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.181,70950.6%864 W · 845 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Toby Samuel68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2995468.2%651 W · 303 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed Cristian Garin68c734.97$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7838443.8%168 W · 216 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Toby Samuel64c673.29$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.82,80453.7%1,505 W · 1,299 L+71.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Toby Samuel33c666$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.2239951.1%204 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Toby Samuel68c651.58$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4712051.7%62 W · 58 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Toby Samuel40c650$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.2545948.8%224 W · 235 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Toby Samuel66c647$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.981,89544.9%851 W · 1,044 L+38.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Toby Samuel43c639.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.832,88247.2%1,360 W · 1,522 L+39.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…705fbacked Toby Samuel51c623$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.2730953.1%164 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Toby Samuel67c602.23$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.8187650.3%441 W · 435 L+23.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Toby Samuel48c587.02$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.011,11257.9%644 W · 468 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Cristian Garin33c586.18$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.441,89345.9%868 W · 1,025 L+53.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Toby Samuel36c555.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.561,13642.9%487 W · 649 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e2…edc8backed Toby Samuel66c530.3$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.35100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc48a…c6c4backed Cristian Garin44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked Toby Samuel67c499.98$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.992665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+30.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cristian Garin64c499.98$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.759,44444.3%4,188 W · 5,256 L-249.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe3…ec6fbacked Cristian Garin37c485.52$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.912560%15 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Toby Samuel28c455$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.64,70848.3%2,275 W · 2,433 L+36.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Cristian Garin33c454.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.957,15739.8%2,848 W · 4,309 L-9.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Toby Samuel56c451.39$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.42,07652.9%1,099 W · 977 L+33.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67f9…d72ebacked Cristian Garin67c439.19$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.267857.7%45 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17af…b7e4backed Cristian Garin50c396.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20031148.2%150 W · 161 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2890…49ebbacked Cristian Garin8c385.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304337.2%16 W · 27 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Toby Samuel45c331.56$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.3622838.2%87 W · 141 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b0…5294backed Cristian Garin56c330.92$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3247950.9%244 W · 235 L-2.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf8…27cfbacked Toby Samuel68c330.88$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.885664.3%36 W · 20 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Toby Samuel43c322.5$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.961,60624.4%392 W · 1,214 L-41.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Cristian Garin9c320.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281,08154.9%593 W · 488 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed02…85f7backed Toby Samuel32c312.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.512540%50 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c03…31bbbacked Cristian Garin66c300$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810064%64 W · 36 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+28.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Toby Samuel68c295.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.347058.6%41 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Cristian Garin34c295.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10066350.2%333 W · 330 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Toby Samuel39c279.53$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3663045.4%286 W · 344 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…a8e0backed Cristian Garin56c267.85$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15026757.7%154 W · 113 L+17.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Toby Samuel53c263.82$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.71,85646.8%868 W · 988 L-55.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Toby Samuel67c261$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.137,79147.8%3,722 W · 4,069 L+39.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Toby Samuel10c260$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23417037.1%63 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Toby Samuel35c250$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.551941%213 W · 306 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a97…7a1bbacked Cristian Garin66c250$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x280d…2dc2backed Cristian Garin40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Cristian Garin65c230.77$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15029254.1%158 W · 134 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Cristian Garin60c230.32$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.152,36952.2%1,236 W · 1,133 L+87.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Toby Samuel76c226.86$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.22065%13 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Toby Samuel39c201$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.615556.4%31 W · 24 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8ab…13a1backed Toby Samuel50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10028951.9%150 W · 139 L-21.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Toby Samuel49c190.37$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.671,52243.9%668 W · 854 L-26.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Cristian Garin68c188.36$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0830338.3%116 W · 187 L-0.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.