NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce6830919fd56ccd82655073c4a0d22456f910d4e8510d912694a6453430bd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 11,266$5,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,648.54 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 10,548$5,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,231.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 50c | 4,962$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 51c | 3,586$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.32 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 52c | 1,573$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.91 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 1,291$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.52 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Over | 50c | 1,242$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 1,073$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.01 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…0a35backed Over | 53c | 942.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 416.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 60.9%109 W · 70 L | +17.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 394.39$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.37 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 239.52$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 50c | 175.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 171.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Over | 53c | 133.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 106.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 90.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 83.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 71.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 47c | 44.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 32.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 49c | 30.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 23.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53e…1aa3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…ce27backed Over | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Jazz won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.