NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75c1cdd9b5fa3591c133bbfdf34067a49d176754dfd536c87ce6f977bff4f2f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 15,593$7,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,493.53 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Jazz | 54c | 14,203$7,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,735.58 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Grizzlies | 48c | 7,749$3,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,013.99 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Jazz | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jazz | 55c | 2,406$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.16 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Jazz | 59c | 640.27$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.2 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz | 57c | 526.26$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.72 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 59c | 386.73$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.45 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Grizzlies | 43c | 294.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.69 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 42c | 249.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Jazz | 45c | 240.44$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 25c | 203.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Grizzlies | 42c | 166.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Grizzlies | 43c | 147.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Jazz | 59c | 144.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jazz | 54c | 136.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Grizzlies | 41c | 121.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.2 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Jazz | 54c | 117.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Jazz | 72c | 99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Jazz | 60c | 93.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 59c | 91.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed Jazz | 55c | 90.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Jazz | 70c | 82.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz | 64c | 78.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Jazz | 57c | 75.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 43c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Jazz | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 33c | 63.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Jazz | 56c | 60.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Grizzlies | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…ee84backed Grizzlies | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz | 76c | 50.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jazz | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 56c | 49.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Jazz | 58c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Grizzlies | 43c | 48.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd075…3d1fbacked Jazz | 54c | 46.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Grizzlies | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Jazz | 56c | 42.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Grizzlies | 46c | 42.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 58c | 39.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies | 43c | 39.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jazz | 57c | 39.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Jazz | 64c | 31.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Grizzlies | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Grizzlies | 43c | 27.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 57c | 22.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…c6dabacked Jazz | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Jazz won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.