NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59656168f254847ffad8cf64d3878afb3158256bfffd085a0c781dae2ddffae3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 56c | 2,260$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.19 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 48c | 1,448$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.06 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…173fbacked Grizzlies | 39c | 999.88$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…3f0fbacked Jazz | 61c | 961.1$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…ac40backed Grizzlies | 41c | 940.83$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.25 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 37c | 666.83$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.65 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Jazz | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Jazz | 39c | 333.52$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +6.9wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Jazz | 65c | 308.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Jazz | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Grizzlies | 60c | 237.22$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Grizzlies | 41c | 215.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies | 38c | 178.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 62c | 169.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.34 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz | 37c | 146.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Grizzlies | 48c | 145.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Grizzlies | 45c | 103.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Grizzlies | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Jazz | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Grizzlies | 46c | 92.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Jazz | 63c | 92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 37c | 90.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 58c | 87.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Jazz | 62c | 73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Grizzlies | 33c | 55.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 268 | 39.2%105 W · 163 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…787bbacked Jazz | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…741dbacked Jazz | 33c | 45.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Jazz | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…9169backed Jazz | 62c | 33.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa0…d504backed Jazz | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Grizzlies | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Grizzlies | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Jazz | 61c | 21.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Jazz | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Jazz won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.