NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03858487c38a955ad344a7f6d7612cddd221f643a3077b0568a0513e3b723d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 55c | 4,294$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.56 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 43c | 3,120$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.59 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 57c | 2,800$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.85 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 2,637$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 43c | 1,773$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.69 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 56c | 982.64$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 4c | 769.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 13c | 730.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 4c | 450.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 351$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.93 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 66c | 348.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.83 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…840bbacked Under | 76c | 239.9$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 41c | 228.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 59c | 194$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 34c | 187.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…0ec7backed Over | 56c | 127.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…7528backed Over | 57c | 106$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -11.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 59c | 99.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 68c | 87.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 232 | 46.1%107 W · 125 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 42c | 73.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 40c | 70.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Over | 44c | 68.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 57c | 66.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 39c | 58.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Under | 68c | 57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 469 | 40.3%189 W · 280 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…78d7backed Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Over | 55c | 42.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…6d82backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c6…7d81backed Over | 49c | 33.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…f01dbacked Under | 62c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…f7d1backed Under | 62c | 26.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 59c | 25.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…59c8backed Over | 49c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 57c | 23.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Jazz won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.