NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x551da0eebcad52236ad09f2e1a2b7bfb174cbafc17108dd513eb084f88f61df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90f6…71eebacked Over | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 991.29$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.05 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 837$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 36c | 462.11$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 62c | 435.19$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.37 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 32c | 370.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 70c | 215.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 52c | 166$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Under | 63c | 158.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…e82ebacked Under | 66c | 150.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 112.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 68c | 104.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 226 | 46.9%106 W · 120 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 63c | 98.88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Over | 51c | 90.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 403 | 44.4%179 W · 224 L | -23.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 64c | 78.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 257 | 52.5%135 W · 122 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed Under | 52c | 69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Over | 48c | 69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 34c | 68.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 48c | 65.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Under | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…df74backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Under | 55c | 45.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 178 | 44.4%79 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…dac7backed Under | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Over | 47c | 41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Over | 38c | 40.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…13bebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 39.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…23e2backed Under | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 37c | 38.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…0af4backed Over | 38c | 29.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…f39ebacked Under | 52c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Jazz won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.