NBA · resolved market
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a5a235171f3df770d089641aaa3e320a6af576e16aff410847cc09dee6ea13d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Grizzlies, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Grizzlies | 49c | 16,289$7,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,306.83 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz | 51c | 8,372$4,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,273.7 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 50c | 5,593$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,814.13 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jazz | 48c | 5,250$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 48c | 4,588$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,373.86 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jazz | 50c | 3,311$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.25 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 51c | 2,746$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.43 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Grizzlies | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 69c | 1,991$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.19 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 1,329$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Grizzlies | 54c | 1,296$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.13 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Jazz | 51c | 943.27$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.07 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 47c | 931.65$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.15 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Jazz | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9325…adafbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 377.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.07 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz | 51c | 371.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.22 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Jazz | 52c | 300$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…af01backed Jazz | 48c | 243.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Jazz | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Grizzlies | 49c | 223.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Grizzlies | 30c | 217$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Jazz | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Grizzlies | 48c | 211.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.83 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 48c | 196.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jazz | 53c | 189.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies | 35c | 151.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Jazz | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Grizzlies | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Jazz | 50c | 149.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jazz | 46c | 142.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Jazz | 46c | 121.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Jazz | 48c | 104.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 52c | 93.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Jazz | 51c | 85.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Jazz | 57c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Jazz | 52c | 75.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…2e45backed Jazz | 53c | 75.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Jazz | 47c | 54.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Jazz | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Grizzlies | 52c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jazz | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Jazz | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Jazz | 50c | 29.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked Grizzlies | 41c | 27.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grizzlies | 48c | 26.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Jazz | 51c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 23.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Grizzlies | 47c | 21.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Grizzlies | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Jazz won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.