NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d290fb9ce7759e8ccfa02fab82da820899a58d80f3074eea32fb0ea7f9a576a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d10…e270backed Under | 46c | 20,800$9,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,660.24 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 16,096$8,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,481.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 47c | 865.27$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.13 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 785.36$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.23 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 54c | 756.42$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.95 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 744.62$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.42 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 503.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 476$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 470$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.9 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 15c | 422.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…f96dbacked Under | 3c | 403$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 392.87$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.65 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 260.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 17c | 196.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 10c | 130.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Over | 56c | 120.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 108.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…44a9backed Under | 54c | 99.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 83.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Under | 46c | 80.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…7219backed Over | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 64c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 65.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 46c | 55.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 65c | 43.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 36.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Under | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 77c | 30.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 50c | 28.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 48c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 27.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 45c | 23.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Over | 54c | 23.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 56c | 23.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49cb…dd4dbacked Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…7ab0backed Over | 68c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 54c | 18.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca8…9db2backed Over | 70c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Jazz won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Jaylen Wells: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Jazz vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 241.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5Under won
- Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Under won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.