TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Legacy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$552,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$616,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $552,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x47a8…52f9backed Legacy34c60,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,399.8610142.6%43 W · 58 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Team Falcons65c50,000$32,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,499.9722354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Legacy32c49,849$15,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,901.6741649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Legacy32c44,732$14,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,361.6110551.4%54 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Legacy35c36,226$12,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,499.595,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Team Falcons66c31,590$20,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,740.7623355.4%129 W · 104 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Legacy35c30,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,50023839.9%95 W · 143 L-11.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Legacy31c25,000$7,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,749.9275452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Falcons67c22,000$14,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,209.9564852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Falcons69c21,000$14,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,51075758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Team Falcons66c18,923$12,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,399.9738358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Team Falcons68c17,000$11,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,44050054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons69c15,262$10,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,794.443,25650.3%1,637 W · 1,619 L+97.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Team Falcons66c11,741$7,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.2117853.9%96 W · 82 L+0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Team Falcons68c10,582$7,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.372245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Legacy32c10,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9637157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Legacy35c9,587$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.4323848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Legacy23c8,238$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.211,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Falcons69c7,333$5,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.2333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Team Falcons68c7,166$4,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,293.142060%12 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Team Falcons68c6,679$4,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.186841.2%28 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Team Falcons68c6,384$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.426654.5%36 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Team Falcons66c6,064$4,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.4723354.9%128 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Legacy34c5,882$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00033359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Team Falcons72c5,290$3,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.92360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x415a…cea5backed Team Falcons67c5,021$3,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,656.841464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe52c…01f4backed Legacy35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7504542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Legacy31c5,000$1,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,57075350.5%380 W · 373 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed Team Falcons69c5,000$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5503250%16 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7df…5eeebacked Legacy31c5,000$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,55016245.1%73 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Team Falcons66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.9737946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Team Falcons78c4,576$3,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.3514042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Legacy33c4,486$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.2366551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Legacy32c4,444$1,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.0532425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Legacy9c4,253$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.045,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Legacy33c3,973$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30035236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Legacy28c3,552$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00046165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Team Falcons66c3,502$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.6821655.1%119 W · 97 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Team Falcons66c3,400$2,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1566956.5%39 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc84…04b2backed Team Falcons65c3,169$2,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.465444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…7e93backed Legacy32c3,016$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.023636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x692b…1550backed Team Falcons64c3,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.134961.2%30 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Legacy33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99019346.1%89 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98e5…f069backed Team Falcons66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02014763.9%94 W · 53 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons68c2,966$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.121,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa943…bcbebacked Team Falcons68c2,785$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.31643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick62cpaid-35.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfaa2…e80abacked Team Falcons66c2,764$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.843053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons68c2,657$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.1187047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf917…bde0backed Legacy30c2,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9912253.3%65 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Team Falcons65c2,492$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.0688242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x536a…d21dbacked Team Falcons65c2,466$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.061457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Team Falcons66c2,258$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.7235947.9%172 W · 187 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed Legacy34c2,235$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76034146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Team Falcons67c2,150$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.6244343.3%192 W · 251 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed Team Falcons66c2,131$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.7755845.7%255 W · 303 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Legacy33c2,125$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.231,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Legacy33c2,114$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.5510635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Legacy35c2,059$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.581,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Team Falcons66c2,046$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.7338739.5%153 W · 234 L-15.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Team Falcons66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68025344.3%112 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Team Falcons65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.9918846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea3…fe61backed Legacy11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.991729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7673…fa40backed Team Falcons68c1,912$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.762240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Legacy33c1,788$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.963435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Legacy33c1,767$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.1821251.4%109 W · 103 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e93…79f3backed Team Falcons67c1,720$1,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.635160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x254b…e8abbacked Team Falcons65c1,700$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.993043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Team Falcons68c1,698$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.3925147.8%120 W · 131 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Legacy10c1,663$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.412,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9c…a518backed Legacy31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46516544.8%74 W · 91 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Legacy35c1,500$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52526054.2%141 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Legacy32c1,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9820249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5954…7d41backed Team Falcons71c1,495$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.4810352.4%54 W · 49 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Team Falcons66c1,495$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.317250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb7…0dbdbacked Team Falcons66c1,479$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16c…a3aabacked Team Falcons68c1,466$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.186256.5%35 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe111…685abacked Legacy30c1,459$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.1417540%70 W · 105 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed Team Falcons66c1,441$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.0220059%118 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons66c1,371$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.0845058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Legacy12c1,359$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5412941.1%53 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Team Falcons67c1,347$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.1111952.1%62 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed Team Falcons65c1,347$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.3928943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x211d…3ab7backed Team Falcons66c1,318$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.1819351.8%100 W · 93 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c4c…9f95backed Legacy14c1,308$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1614242.3%60 W · 82 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x616f…e14cbacked Team Falcons67c1,238$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.662653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3237…571ebacked Legacy16c1,236$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005431.5%17 W · 37 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Legacy29c1,200$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.592,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd468…f6febacked Legacy7c1,191$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7946042.8%197 W · 263 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Legacy28c1,125$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.522,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Team Falcons70c1,100$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33039548.6%192 W · 203 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x660a…3d22backed Legacy33c1,061$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505251.9%27 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77ac…1bf6backed Team Falcons67c1,045$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.7827961.3%171 W · 108 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Legacy35c1,019$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6715740.8%64 W · 93 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Team Falcons66c1,010$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.453461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked Legacy33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33031253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Legacy32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3208149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e8…88a4backed Team Falcons66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34017162%106 W · 65 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Legacy30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Team Falcons68c999.99$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3201747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked Legacy30c991.91$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.4938941.9%163 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.