NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d70c6e4236b2534ff5d7487af747c7904eb09879926ae77ef283077059bea80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 50c | 19,934$9,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,966.97 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…3d49backed Over | 50c | 7,647$3,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,823.74 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…3096backed Over | 50c | 5,100$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.94 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 4,684$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Under | 52c | 3,678$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.41 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Over | 50c | 2,058$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.17 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Over | 49c | 1,773$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.76 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 1,575$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.42 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 1,551$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.53 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 50c | 1,144$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.93 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Over | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -9.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…8fdabacked Over | 48c | 829$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.92 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 48c | 512.65$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 351.39$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.7 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Under | 51c | 342.56$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 340.73$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.69 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 51c | 296.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Under | 51c | 294.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.54 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +9.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 67c | 232.21$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Under | 51c | 190.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.53 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 48c | 190.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb895…e4afbacked Over | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 43c | 133.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee62…bc6abacked Under | 50c | 111$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under | 51c | 109.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.74 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 51c | 107.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 52c | 102.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 51c | 96.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 384 | 53.4%205 W · 179 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…0058backed Under | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 51c | 90.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 51c | 90.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…4d42backed Under | 50c | 89.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under | 51c | 86.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 61c | 84.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 17c | 83.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…7e77backed Under | 73c | 80.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 49c | 77.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 50c | 69.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 51c | 64.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 51c | 64.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 51c | 64.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 166 | 53.6%89 W · 77 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed Under | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa655…b10cbacked Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…3635backed Under | 75c | 49.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 47.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 39.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 70c | 39.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 219 | 52.5%115 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…1052backed Under | 51c | 36.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…3a70backed Under | 51c | 36.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…27b4backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over | 51c | 27.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Over | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed Under | 51c | 20.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 241.5this page
- Heat vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Heat vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 242.5Under won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.