NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40bd15d200387d569616cb49da1be08e0363977f77ea428200e7b42f0184ac30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Raptors, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb603…754bbacked Raptors | 44c | 5,021$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,815.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Heat | 55c | 3,034$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.6 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 53c | 2,931$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.19 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 56c | 1,321$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Heat | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -9.5wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…30d5backed Raptors | 46c | 820.28$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Raptors | 45c | 450$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Heat | 57c | 448.33$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.23 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raptors | 52c | 440.45$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.23 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Raptors | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…5cddbacked Heat | 55c | 300.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Raptors | 45c | 297.92$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Heat | 26c | 290.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Heat | 50c | 273.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Heat | 55c | 265.36$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -6.0wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors | 45c | 258.59$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 28c | 234.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 45c | 188.78$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Heat | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Heat | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Raptors | 45c | 165.34$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Heat | 54c | 158$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Heat | 32c | 148.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed Raptors | 54c | 146.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Heat | 56c | 138.86$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 202 | 40.1%81 W · 121 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Heat | 40c | 137.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Raptors | 71c | 131$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heat | 51c | 121.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Raptors | 41c | 114.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…7623backed Raptors | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Heat | 48c | 98.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…caefbacked Heat | 48c | 98.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Heat | 23c | 97.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 288 | 42.7%123 W · 165 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…b455backed Heat | 54c | 90.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 660 | 46.4%306 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Raptors | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Heat | 48c | 76.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…7b24backed Raptors | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Heat | 52c | 72.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Heat | 54c | 71.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 46c | 67.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d7…406dbacked Heat | 55c | 60.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Raptors | 46c | 56.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Heat | 57c | 54.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Heat | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Heat | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…9971backed Heat | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 281 | 56.2%158 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…6d85backed Raptors | 77c | 40.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Heat | 55c | 40.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Heat | 54c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Raptors | 48c | 38.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Raptors | 66c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Raptors | 66c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Raptors | 66c | 34.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…7613backed Raptors | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Heat | 56c | 32.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Raptors | 45c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Raptors | 76c | 27.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Heat | 53c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Raptors | 57c | 26.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Heat | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Heat | 56c | 25.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Raptors | 77c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Raptors | 77c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Raptors | 77c | 24.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Heat | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Heat | 57c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Raptors | 49c | 21.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Raptors | 76c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Raptors | 76c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Raptors | 76c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Raptors | 76c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Raptors | 77c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Raptors | 77c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Raptors | 77c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Raptors | 77c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Raptors | 77c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Raptors | 77c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-3.5)this page
- Heat vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Heat vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Raptors: O/U 242.5Under won
- Immanuel Quickley: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Immanuel Quickley: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-2.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.