Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by November 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e0f356d5e42bfc7d662f7c1d3564543bafd0e253c2734689e48037cb09235d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x108d…508abacked No | 0c | 31,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…93a9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,976$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c84fbacked No | 38c | 3,796$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.4 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 41c | 2,120$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.83 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed No | 2c | 2,053$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 30c | 1,652$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.45 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…4685backed No | 1c | 1,034$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 3c | 726.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 28c | 695.32$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked No | 34c | 599.76$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.64 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…4ed9backed No | 44c | 545.45$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 66c | 484$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.41 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef1c…92adbacked No | 46c | 360.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 340.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6b…4e3ebacked Yes | 66c | 330$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 277.26$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.04 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…7e26backed No | 74c | 227$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 35c | 202$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae1…389ebacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…ced0backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Yes | 63c | 192.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Yes | 58c | 131.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd040…5bc8backed No | 78c | 120$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 37c | 109.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 100.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 96.66$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 54c | 78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 54c | 74.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8ba2backed Yes | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a5…ec07backed Yes | 55c | 53.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…861bbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…1015backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 47c | 41.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f2…cefdbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…25a8backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…17c8backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed No | 70c | 38.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed Yes | 54c | 38.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…8384backed No | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c7…8241backed Yes | 31c | 33.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef7…d00ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…c508backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…177abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by November 15?this page
- Will the U.S. House of Representatives session be announced by November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.