TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,923 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves73c2,845$2,076 inLost-$2,076.48,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Atlanta Braves69c1,924$1,333 inLost-$1,332.564,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays35c1,852$657 inWon+$1,194.88,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves67c1,372$914 inLost-$914.248,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays29c1,261$366 inWon+$895.5810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Blue Jays33c1,046$345 inWon+$700.8391252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Atlanta Braves50c1,015$508 inLost-$507.6121242%89 W · 123 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Toronto Blue Jays13c985.64$128 inWon+$857.5111642.2%49 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays35c645.4$226 inWon+$419.7711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdae6…7d39backed Toronto Blue Jays15c581.2$87 inWon+$494.024637%17 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays19c491.68$92 inWon+$399.912,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays33c479$157 inWon+$321.994,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Toronto Blue Jays14c387.19$54 inWon+$332.9849450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays21c328.92$69 inWon+$259.9312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Toronto Blue Jays14c250$35 inWon+$21519540%78 W · 117 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Toronto Blue Jays31c200$62 inWon+$13821149.3%104 W · 107 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Atlanta Braves58c132.74$77 inLost-$77.43,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Toronto Blue Jays35c124.73$44 inWon+$80.91,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves66c123.12$82 inLost-$81.664,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Toronto Blue Jays33c106.06$35 inWon+$71.0647549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays14c100$14 inWon+$8668942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Toronto Blue Jays32c99.72$32 inWon+$67.8113353.4%71 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Toronto Blue Jays33c81.82$27 inWon+$54.8254651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Toronto Blue Jays51c80.32$41 inWon+$39.3728456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays32c74.81$24 inWon+$51.12,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed Toronto Blue Jays28c71.43$20 inWon+$51.433040%12 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Toronto Blue Jays48c68.66$33 inWon+$35.621055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves67c54.53$37 inLost-$36.583,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Toronto Blue Jays33c50.61$17 inWon+$33.9112352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Toronto Blue Jays26c45.06$12 inWon+$33.211,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Atlanta Braves32c41.82$13 inLost-$13.494829.2%14 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves73c27.52$20 inLost-$20.045,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7891…c020backed Atlanta Braves70c20.25$14 inLost-$14.167152.1%37 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Atlanta Braves59c20.11$12 inLost-$11.866,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Atlanta Braves70c14.56$10 inLost-$10.193,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.