MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4f9ebde91f31f45e46948bb418d7a5e7c1593eb211c89a0d9f3dff1de3481c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 3,420$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,597.59 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 3,069$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.53 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Atlanta Braves | 80c | 2,700$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 2,013$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.71 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 1,840$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.32 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…add3backed Atlanta Braves | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Atlanta Braves | 40c | 622$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 581.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.14 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432d…bda6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 562.75$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.96 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 17c | 507.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 440$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 358.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.21 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Atlanta Braves | 50c | 358.12$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 54c | 339.95$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 309.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.52 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…be6cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 269.29$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 269.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.64 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 186.6$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 163.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 146.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 132.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Atlanta Braves | 53c | 131.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 124.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 118.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 92.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 90.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 84.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 84.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Atlanta Braves | 37c | 77.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 57.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 56.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…8c0ebacked Atlanta Braves | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 40.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Atlanta Braves | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 35.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 31.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 30.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…375cbacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 30.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Atlanta Braves | 57c | 21.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Atlanta Braves | 74c | 15.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta BravesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.